ISSN: 1949-1964
Released March 17, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Eggs in Incubators on March 1 Up 5 Percent from Last Year
Turkey eggs in incubators on March 1, 2015, in the United States totaled
27.4 million, up 5 percent from March 1, 2014. Eggs in incubators were up
1 percent from the February 1, 2015 total of 27.1 million eggs.
Poults Hatched During February Up 2 Percent from Last Year
Turkey poults hatched during February 2015, in the United States totaled
21.9 million, up 2 percent from February 2014. Poults hatched were down
9 percent from the January 2015 total of 24.0 million poults.
Net Poults Placed During February Down 2 Percent from Last Year
The 20.5 million net poults placed during February 2015 in the United States
were down 2 percent from the number placed during the same month a year
earlier. Net placements were down 9 percent from the January 2015 total of
22.4 million.
Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2013-2015
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Eggs in incubators :Percent of: Poults hatched :Percent of
: first of month : previous : entire month : previous
Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year
: : : : : :
:2013-2014 :2014-2015 : :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: --- 1,000 eggs -- percent 1,000 poults percent
:
September ........: 25,538 27,299 107 20,985 22,866 109
October ..........: 26,480 27,733 105 22,939 23,764 104
November .........: 26,393 28,162 107 21,319 21,936 103
December .........: 26,492 28,866 109 22,085 24,660 112
January ..........: 27,299 29,281 107 23,447 24,023 102
February .........: 26,934 27,144 101 21,506 21,916 102
March ............: 26,038 27,435 105 22,388
April ............: 27,202 22,808
May ..............: 29,022 24,194
June .............: 28,924 23,651
July .............: 28,584 24,413
August ...........: 27,923 23,518
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2013-2015
[Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period
has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Total all :Percent of: Cumulative :Percent of
: breeds : previous : total : previous
Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year
: : : : : :
:2013-2014 :2014-2015 : :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 poults percent -- 1,000 poults -- percent
:
September ........: 19,637 21,188 108 19,637 21,188 108
October ..........: 20,916 21,712 104 40,553 42,900 106
November .........: 20,053 20,379 102 60,606 63,279 104
December .........: 21,149 22,516 106 81,755 85,795 105
January ..........: 22,113 22,383 101 103,868 108,178 104
February .........: 20,906 20,466 98 124,774 128,644 103
March ............: 21,562 146,336
April ............: 22,626 168,962
May ..............: 23,313 192,275
June .............: 23,453 215,728
July .............: 24,238 239,966
August ...........: 23,240 263,206
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all
known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all
known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their
lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey
hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire
as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to
respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not
respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all
hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.
Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive
the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values.
Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and
to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated
based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare
these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic
trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural
Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to
State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates
are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult
Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.
Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August
31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period
corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be
available for slaughter during the calendar year.
States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho,
Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina,
New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and
Wisconsin.
Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected
data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey
Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery
Production - Annual Summary report in April.
Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known
operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However,
estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While the affects of these
errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the
"Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table.
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past
performance and is computed using the differences between first and final
estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the
first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.4 percent. This means
that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or
below the current estimate of 27.4 million eggs by more than 1.4 percent.
Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent.
Reliability of March Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate
:square error : confidence : : : : :
: : level :------------------------------------------------------
Item : : : : : : Months
: : : : : :---------------------------
: : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ----
:
Eggs in incubators ................: 1.4 2.3 267 0 1,123 19 4
:
Poults hatched ....................: 0.7 1.2 123 0 414 15 5
:
Net poult placements ..............: 1.4 2.4 260 10 631 12 12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries
may be sent to [email protected]
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ..................................... (202) 720-3570
Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .............. (202) 720-4447
Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage ..................................... (202) 720-4751
Heidi Gleich - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ...................... (202) 720-0585
Michael Klamm - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ..... (202) 690-3237
Tom Kruchten - Census of Aquaculture ................................... (202) 690-4870
Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs ............................................. (202) 690-8632
Sammy Neal - Catfish Production, Egg Products, Mink, Trout Production .. (202) 720-3244
Joshua O'Rear - Honey .................................................. (202) 690-3676
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For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following
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[email protected].
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