Potato Stocks

0
589

ISSN: 1949-1565

Released April 17, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

Potato Stocks Up 9 Percent From April 2014

The 13 major potato States held 130 million cwt of potatoes in storage April
1, 2015, up 9 percent from April 2014. Potatoes in storage accounted for
32 percent of the 2014 fall storage States’ production, 1 percentage point
higher than last year. Potato disappearance, at 272 million cwt, was up 1
percent from April 1, 2014. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 22.1 million
cwt, was 1 percent higher than last year. Processors in the 9 major States
used 144 million cwt of potatoes for the season, up 3 percent from April
2014.

Fall Potato Production and Stocks – 13 Major States: April 1, 2014-2015
[Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year’s crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2013 totaled 25.6
million cwt]
—————————————————————————————————————————————-
:                   Crop of 2013                   :                           Crop of 2014
:———————————————————————————————————————-
State      :                :     Stocks     :  April stocks  :                :     Stocks     :     Stocks     :  April stocks
:   Production   :    April 1,    :  as a percent  :   Production   :  February 1,   :    April 1,    :  as a percent
:                :      2014      :       of       :                :      2015      :      2015      :       of
:                :                :   production   :                :                :                :   production
—————————————————————————————————————————————-
:    ——- 1,000 cwt ——          percent          ————— 1,000 cwt —————          percent
:
California ……:      3,504              800             23              4,038            1,600              700             17
Colorado ……..:     20,304            7,000             34             23,735           13,300            8,800             37
Idaho ………..:    131,131           47,000             36            135,920           76,000           50,000             37
Maine ………..:     15,660            4,400             28             15,150            8,500            5,500             36
Michigan ……..:     15,840            2,100             13             15,725            5,000            1,650             10
Minnesota …….:     17,325            6,000             35             16,800            7,800            5,000             30
Montana ………:      3,441            1,800             52              3,616            3,400            2,000             55
Nebraska ……..:      8,418            2,200             26              6,438            2,700            1,700             26
New York ……..:      4,959              650             13              4,424            1,400              500             11
North Dakota ….:     22,620            6,500             29             24,255           12,400            7,400             31
:
Oregon ……….:     21,582            7,600             35             22,562           13,200            8,200             36
Washington ……:     96,000           26,000             27            101,475           44,000           29,000             29
Wisconsin …….:     26,040            7,000             27             27,090           13,400            9,100             34
:
Total ………..:    386,824          119,050             31            401,228          202,700          129,550             32
:
Klamath Basin 1/ :       (NA)            1,850            (X)               (NA)            3,000            1,500            (X)
—————————————————————————————————————————————-
(NA) Not available.
(X)  Not applicable.
1/   Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Included in the 13 States total.

Fall Potato Production and Stocks – 13 Major States: 2005-2014
[Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
————————————————————————————————-
Crop  :                                        Stocks
:—————————————————————————————
year  :Production:December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1  : April 1  :  May 1   :  June 1
————————————————————————————————-
:                                       1,000 cwt
:
2005 ….: 375,118    253,800    220,500    189,100    155,500    115,700     75,900     41,560
2006 ….: 389,527    258,900    225,800    192,200    159,500    120,900     79,050     44,460
2007 ….: 397,753    265,500    232,300    199,300    163,400    125,500     83,960     50,420
2008 ….: 369,866    243,700    213,200    183,900    152,700    115,800     78,100     45,300
2009 ….: 383,962    265,800    234,300    203,500    169,700    128,700     89,610     55,120
2010 ….: 357,467    240,200    209,400    180,300    148,500    111,000     72,000     41,320
2011 ….: 382,318    253,000       (NA)    187,500       (NA)    115,650       (NA)     43,340
2012 ….: 410,367    271,500       (NA)    204,600       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)
2013 ….: 386,824       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)    119,050       (NA)     46,885
2014 ….: 401,228    267,400       (NA)    202,700       (NA)    129,550
————————————————————————————————-
(NA) Not available.

Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing, 9 States: 2012-2014
[Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced]
———————————————————————————————————————
State and          :    To    :    To    :    To    :    To    :    To    :    To    :    To    :
crop year          :December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1  : April 1  :  May 1   :  June 1  :  Season
———————————————————————————————————————
:                                       1,000 cwt
:
Idaho and Oregon, Malheur    :
2012 ………………….:  27,900     34,740     41,890     49,980     57,750     65,430     73,430     89,780
2013 ………………….:  25,770     32,060     39,090     46,320     53,755     61,780     70,425     85,280
2014 ………………….:  27,685     33,995     40,850     47,905     55,720
:
Maine 1/                     :
2012 ………………….:   1,890      2,380      3,005      3,600      4,290      5,075      5,740      7,720
2013 ………………….:   1,570      1,990      2,510      3,060      3,680      4,240      4,800      6,315
2014 ………………….:   1,410      1,845      2,415      2,925      3,475
:
Washington and Oregon, Other :
2012 ………………….:  31,295     37,730     43,820     51,765     57,915     64,500     70,470     80,400
2013 ………………….:  31,575     37,990     45,420     52,690     59,025     64,905     72,325     80,655
2014 ………………….:  31,870     37,190     42,715     50,380     57,340
:
Other States 2/              :
2012 ………………….:  14,270     16,765     19,785     22,520     25,170     28,320     31,100     40,395
2013 ………………….:  11,365     14,280     17,470     20,475     23,695     26,990     30,195     37,425
2014 ………………….:  13,440     16,730     20,190     23,660     27,300
:
Total                        :
2012 ………………….:  75,355     91,615    108,500    127,865    145,125    163,325    180,740    218,295
2013 ………………….:  70,280     86,320    104,490    122,545    140,155    157,915    177,745    209,675
2014 ………………….:  74,405     89,760    106,170    124,870    143,835
:
Dehydrated 3/                :
2012 ………………….:  13,965     17,640     22,000     26,105     30,135     34,610     38,945     47,305
2013 ………………….:  12,065     15,875     19,835     23,380     27,140     31,095     34,895     44,385
2014 ………………….:  12,935     16,170     19,770     23,450     27,150
———————————————————————————————————————
1/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips.
2/ Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.  Monthly amounts exclude quantities
used for potato chips in Wisconsin.
3/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour.  Includes Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington.

Potato Shrinkage and Loss – 13 Fall Storage States: 2011-2014
——————————————————————————————–
Crop  :    To     :    To     :    To     :    To     :    To     :    To     :    To
year  :December 1 : January 1 :February 1 :  March 1  :  April 1  :   May 1   :  June 1
——————————————————————————————–
:                                    million cwt
:
2011 …:    13.7        16.4        18.8        20.8        22.9        24.5        25.9
2012 …:    13.8        16.4        18.9        (NA)        (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
2013 …:    (NA)        (NA)        (NA)        (NA)        21.9        25.0        27.6
2014 …:    14.2        16.6        18.2        20.4        22.1
——————————————————————————————–
(NA) Not available.

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall
potato producing States, which account for 90 percent of the United States
all potato production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are
contacted during the months of December, February, April, and June to obtain
the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the month, as well as
shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States
(Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington,
and Wisconsin).

Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys
along with federal administrative data is used to establish estimates of
stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are
reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical
estimates.

Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the
previous estimating period are subject to revision based on late and/or
updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information
available, including disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any
necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the
Potatoes Annual Summary.

Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because
all operations holding potato stocks are not included in the sample. Survey
results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission,
duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly,
but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 stocks estimate,
the “Root Mean Square Error”, a statistical measure based on past
performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 stocks estimate
and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate.
The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is
computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the “Root Mean
Square Error”. Probability statements can be made concerning expected
differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season
estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s estimate are not
different from those influencing recent years.

The “Root Mean Square Error” for the April 1 stocks estimate is 3.6 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of
130 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than
3.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 6.3 percent.

Changes between the April 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during
the past 20 years have averaged 3.29 million cwt, ranging from 200,000 cwt to
8.98 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the April 1 estimate has been
below the final estimate 12 times, and above 7 times.

Fall Potato Preliminary and Final April 1 Stocks – United States: 2004-2014
Crop Years
——————————————————————————–
Crop   :      Preliminary      :     Percent of      :         Final
year   :        stocks         :        final        :        stocks
——————————————————————————–
:       1,000 cwt               percent               1,000 cwt
:
2004 …..:        129,620                 100.6                 128,900
2005 …..:        113,900                  98.4                 115,700
2006 …..:        113,600                  94.0                 120,900
2007 …..:        133,600                 106.5                 125,500
2008 …..:        114,550                  98.9                 115,800
2009 …..:        129,100                 100.3                 128,700
2010 …..:        105,600                  95.1                 111,000
2011 …..:        115,850                 100.2                 115,650
2012 …..:           (NA)                  (NA)                    (NA)
2013 …..:        112,150                  94.2                 119,050
2014 …..:        129,550                  (NA)                    (NA)
——————————————————————————–
(NA) Not available.

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics
Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch……………………………………………… (202) 720-2127

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section…………… (202) 720-2127
Vincent Davis – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries, Cherries.. (202) 720-2157
Fleming Gibson – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits………… (202) 720-5412
Greg Lemmons – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ………………. (202) 720-4285
Dave Losh – Hops……………………………………………………….. (360) 709-2400
Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,
Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ………………. (202) 720-3250
Daphne Schauber – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts …………….. (202) 720-4215
Chris Singh – Apples, Apricots, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco …………………….. (202) 720-4288

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