ISSN: 1949-1557
Released December 19, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
November Milk Production up 3.5 Percent
Milk production in the 23 major States during November totaled 15.5 billion
pounds, up 3.5 percent from November 2013. October revised production, at
16.0 billion pounds, was up 3.7 percent from October 2013. The October
revision represented a decrease of 35 million pounds or 0.2 percent from
last month’s preliminary production estimate.
Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,806 pounds for
November,
41 pounds above November 2013. This is the highest production per cow for
the month of November since the 23 State series began in 2003.
The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.59 million
head, 93,000 head more than November 2013, and 3,000 head more than October
2014.
November Milk Production in the United States up 3.4 Percent
Milk production in the United States during November totaled 16.5 billion
pounds, up 3.4 percent from November 2013.
Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,782 pounds for November,
42 pounds above November 2013.
The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.28 million head,
82,000 head more than November 2013, and 4,000 head more than October 2014.
Milk Cows and Production by Quarter – United States: 2013-2014 [May not add
due to rounding]
——————————
———–
: Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk
Production 2/
:—————————–
Quarter : : : : : :
: Change
:2013 3/ : 2014 : 2013 3/ : 2014 : 2013 : 2014
: From
: : : : : :
: 2013
——————————
———–
: 1,000 Head —- Pounds —- Million Pounds
Percent
:
January-March …: 9,214 5,540 50,545 51,046
1.0
April-June ……: 9,253 5,713 51,997 52,861
1.7
July-September ..: 9,224 9,271 5,356 5,518 49,408 51,156
3.5
October-December : 9,201 5,355 49,268
:
Annual ……….: 9,221 21,822 201,218
——————————
———–
1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3/ Survey was not conducted in April and July, resulting in no milk cow and
milk per
cow data for March through June. 2013 annual totals include modeled data.
Milk Cows and Production By Month – 23 Selected States: 2013-2014
——————————
——————————
: Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ :
Milk production2/
:—————————–
—————————–
: : : : :
: : Change
Month : 2013 3/ : 2014 : 2013 3/ : 2014 :
2013 : 2014 : from
: : : : :
: : 2013
:—————————–
—————————–
: 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds
million pounds million pounds percent
:
January …….: 8,497 8,512 1,881 1,902
15,985 16,186 1.3
February ……: 8,498 8,513 1,732 1,750
14,715 14,899 1.3
March ………: 8,521 1,958
16,501 16,687 1.1
April ………: 8,542 1,912
16,105 16,332 1.4
May ………..: 8,559 1,977
16,648 16,922 1.6
June ……….: 8,572 1,893
15,860 16,227 2.3
July ……….: 8,522 8,583 1,850 1,909
15,762 16,388 4.0
August ……..: 8,522 8,582 1,850 1,885
15,768 16,174 2.6
September …..: 8,508 8,590 1,748 1,805
14,874 15,507 4.3
October …….: 8,504 8,589 1,817 1,864
15,449 16,013 3.7
November ……: 8,499 8,592 1,765 1,806
15,002 15,520 3.5
December ……: 8,504 1,851
15,741
:
Annual ……..: 8,508 22,145
188,410
——————————
——————————
1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3/ Survey was not conducted in April and July, resulting in no milk cow and
milk per cow data for March through June.
Estimated Milk Cows and Production By Month – United States: 2013-2014
——————————
——————————
: Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ :
Milk production2/
:—————————–
—————————–
: : : : :
: : Change
Month : 2013 3/ : 2014 : 2013 3/ : 2014 :
2013 : 2014 : from
: : : : :
: : 2013
:—————————–
—————————–
: 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds
million pounds million pounds percent
:
January …….: 9,222 9,210 1,855 1,878
17,109 17,293 1.1
February ……: 9,223 9,212 1,709 1,728
15,759 15,920 1.0
March ………: 9,221 1,934
17,677 17,833 0.9
April ………: 9,238 1,891
17,249 17,468 1.3
May ………..: 9,254 1,954
17,813 18,080 1.5
June ……….: 9,267 1,868
16,935 17,313 2.2
July ……….: 9,235 9,271 1,818 1,882
16,788 17,448 3.9
August ……..: 9,229 9,265 1,819 1,858
16,789 17,214 2.5
September …..: 9,208 9,276 1,719 1,778
15,831 16,494 4.2
October …….: 9,203 9,276 1,790 1,839
16,475 17,060 3.6
November ……: 9,198 9,280 1,740 1,782
16,003 16,540 3.4
December ……: 9,202 1,825
16,790
:
Annual ……..: 9,221 21,822
201,218
——————————
——————————
1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3/ Survey was not conducted in April and July, resulting in no milk cow and
milk per cow data for March through June.
Milk Cows and Production – 23 Selected States: November 2013 and 2014 [May
not add due to rounding]
——————————
——————————
: Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/
: Milk production 2/
State
:—————————–
—————————–
: : : :
: : : Change
: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014
: 2013 : 2014 : from
: : : :
: : : 2013
——————————
——————————
: 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds
million pounds million pounds percent
:
Arizona ………: 190 193 1,860 1,930
353 372 5.4
California ……: 1,780 1,780 1,840 1,880
3,275 3,346 2.2
Colorado ……..: 138 145 1,975 2,030
273 294 7.7
Florida ………: 123 123 1,495 1,535
184 189 2.7
Idaho ………..: 567 579 1,885 1,920
1,069 1,112 4.0
Illinois ……..: 96 92 1,550 1,550
149 143 -4.0
Indiana ………: 178 179 1,730 1,775
308 318 3.2
Iowa …………: 206 207 1,775 1,840
366 381 4.1
Kansas ……….: 135 143 1,800 1,800
243 257 5.8
Michigan ……..: 380 399 1,930 1,965
733 784 7.0
:
Minnesota …….: 461 460 1,565 1,615
721 743 3.1
New Mexico ……: 322 323 1,990 1,975
641 638 -0.5
New York ……..: 611 615 1,750 1,805
1,069 1,110 3.8
Ohio …………: 268 267 1,600 1,630
429 435 1.4
Oregon ……….: 123 124 1,625 1,615
200 200 –
Pennsylvania ….: 530 530 1,585 1,640
840 869 3.5
South Dakota ….: 95 97 1,735 1,810
165 176 6.7
Texas ………..: 440 470 1,770 1,785
779 839 7.7
Utah …………: 93 96 1,775 1,855
165 178 7.9
Vermont ………: 132 132 1,570 1,630
207 215 3.9
:
Virginia ……..: 94 92 1,490 1,535
140 141 0.7
Washington ……: 266 276 1,885 1,905
501 526 5.0
Wisconsin …….: 1,271 1,270 1,725 1,775
2,192 2,254 2.8
:
23-State Total ..: 8,499 8,592 1,765 1,806
15,002 15,520 3.5
——————————
——————————
– Represents zero.
1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Cows and Production – 23 Selected States: October 2013 and 2014 [May
not add due to rounding]
——————————
—————————–
: Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ :
Milk Production 2/
:—————————–
————–
: : : : :
: : Change
: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013
: 2014 : from
: : : : :
: : 2013
:—————————–
————–
:1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million
pounds million pounds percent
:
Arizona …….: 190 193 1,880 1,915 357
370 3.6
California ….: 1,780 1,779 1,875 1,930 3,338
3,433 2.8
Colorado ……: 137 145 2,030 2,105 278
305 9.7
Florida …….: 123 123 1,400 1,470 172
181 5.2
Idaho ………: 569 579 1,950 2,010 1,110
1,164 4.9
Illinois ……: 97 93 1,570 1,600 152
149 -2.0
Indiana …….: 178 179 1,790 1,820 319
326 2.2
Iowa ……….: 206 207 1,820 1,885 375
390 4.0
Kansas ……..: 135 143 1,835 1,855 248
265 6.9
Michigan ……: 380 397 2,000 2,050 760
814 7.1
:
Minnesota …..: 463 460 1,610 1,655 745
761 2.1
New Mexico ….: 322 323 2,025 2,050 652
662 1.5
New York ……: 610 615 1,840 1,880 1,122
1,156 3.0
Ohio ……….: 269 267 1,650 1,710 444
457 2.9
Oregon ……..: 123 124 1,690 1,685 208
209 0.5
Pennsylvania ..: 530 530 1,620 1,680 859
890 3.6
South Dakota ..: 95 97 1,830 1,860 174
180 3.4
Texas ………: 440 470 1,820 1,825 801
858 7.1
Utah ……….: 93 96 1,840 1,920 171
184 7.6
Vermont …….: 132 132 1,620 1,680 214
222 3.7
:
Virginia ……: 94 92 1,510 1,580 142
145 2.1
Washington ….: 266 275 1,975 1,995 525
549 4.6
Wisconsin …..: 1,272 1,270 1,795 1,845 2,283
2,343 2.6
:
23-State Total : 8,504 8,589 1,817 1,864 15,449
16,013 3.7
——————————
—————————–
1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were
obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of
all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States
use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as
complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small
producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers
near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.
Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the
mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal
administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication
of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow
inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Surveys.
Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a
combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.
Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are
subject to revision the following month after initial publication for
monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally,
administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of
Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However,
administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these
revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year
based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional
changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the
following year.
Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.
Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of
these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid
quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review
of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this
report, the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected items in the
table below. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on
past performance and is computed using the differences between first and
final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for the 23 State milk
production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that
chances are
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current
estimate of 15.5 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out
of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent.
Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past
24 months]
——————————
——————————
: Root mean : 90 percent :
Difference between first and latest estimate
: square error : confidence : :
: : :
: : level
:—————————–
Item : : : :
: : Months
: : : :
: :—————————–
: : : Average
:Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest
——————————
——————————
: percent percent ——–
1,000 ——- —– number —–
:
:
Milk production …………..: 0.2 0.3 26 1
81 15 9
:
All Milk cows …………….: 0.1 0.1 4 0
11 10 12
——————————
——————————
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional
information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected].
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ……….. (202) 720-3570
Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ……….. (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill – Cattle, Cattle on Feed …… (202) 720-3040
Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter …… (202) 720-3240
Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ……………… (202) 720-3106
Donnie Fike – Dairy Products …………….. (202) 690-3236
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
Evan Schulz – Sheep and Goats ……………. (202) 720-6147
