Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737
Released February 10, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Orange Production Unchanged from January Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2014-2015 season is
6.72 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 1 percent
from the 2013-2014 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
103 million boxes (4.64 million tons), is unchanged from the previous
forecast but down 2 percent from last season’s final utilization. Early,
midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 48.0 million boxes
(2.16 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10
percent
last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at
55.0 million boxes (2.48 million tons), is unchanged from previous forecast
but up 7 percent from last season’s final utilization.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the
2014-2015 season is 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 1
percent
from the January forecast but virtually unchanged from last season’s final
yield of 1.57 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at
1.46 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last month but down 4 percent from
last season’s yield. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.69 gallons,
up 3 percent from last year’s final yield of 1.64 gallons per box but
down 2 percent from last month’s forecast. All projections of yield assume
the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the
past
several seasons.
This report was approved on February 10, 2015.
Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Robert Johansson
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
James M. Harris
Contents
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United
States: 2013 and 2014……… 4
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States:
2013-2014 and Forecasted
February 1,
2015……………………..
…………….. 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015.. 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015…. 8
Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2014 and 2015 (Domestic
Units)……………………
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2014 and
2015……………………..
Percent of Normal Precipitation
Map………………………
Departure from Normal Temperature
Map………………………
January Weather
Summary…………………..
…………. 13
January Agricultural
Summary…………………..
…….. 13
Crop
Comments………………….
…………………… 14
Statistical
Methodology……………….
…………….. 16
Information
Contacts………………….
…………….. 17
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United
States: 2013 and 2014
——————————
————————
Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/
: Production 1/
:—————————–
: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014
: 2013 : 2014
——————————
————————
: 1,000 acres —– tons —–
— 1,000 tons —
:
For sugar :
Florida ………………….: 400.0 395.9 34.3 38.4
13,720 15,203
Hawaii 2/ ………………..: 15.5 16.8 87.2 82.0
1,352 1,378
Louisiana 2/ ……………..: 410.0 385.0 30.5 30.0
12,505 11,550
Texas 2/ …………………: 34.1 31.5 42.4 37.9
1,446 1,194
:
United States …………….: 859.6 829.2 33.8 35.4
29,023 29,325
:
For seed :
Florida ………………….: 16.0 16.1 42.5 42.8
680 689
Hawaii 2/ ………………..: 2.2 2.2 20.5 20.4
45 45
Louisiana 2/ ……………..: 32.0 25.0 30.5 30.0
976 750
Texas 2/ …………………: 1.0 1.6 37.0 37.9
37 61
:
United States …………….: 51.2 44.9 33.9 34.4
1,738 1,545
:
For sugar and seed :
Florida ………………….: 416.0 412.0 34.6 38.6
14,400 15,892
Hawaii 2/ ………………..: 17.7 19.0 78.9 74.9
1,397 1,423
Louisiana 2/ ……………..: 442.0 410.0 30.5 30.0
13,481 12,300
Texas 2/ …………………: 35.1 33.1 42.3 37.9
1,483 1,255
:
United States …………….: 910.8 874.1 33.8 35.3
30,761 30,870
——————————
————————
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates are carried forward from the “Crop Production 2014 Summary”
released January 2015.
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States:
2013-2014 and Forecasted
February 1, 2015
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the
following year]
——————————
——————————
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :
Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State
:—————————–
—-
: 2013-2014 : 2014-2015 :
2013-2014 : 2014-2015
——————————
——————————
: ——- 1,000 boxes ——-
——- 1,000 tons ——
Oranges :
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ :
California 3/ …………..: 39,000 40,000
1,560 1,600
Florida ………………..: 53,300 48,000
2,398 2,160
Texas 3/ ……………….: 1,400 1,670
60 71
:
United States …………..: 93,700 89,670
4,018 3,831
:
Valencia :
California 3/ …………..: 11,000 10,000
440 400
Florida ………………..: 51,300 55,000
2,309 2,475
Texas 3/ ……………….: 376 345
16 15
:
United States …………..: 62,676 65,345
2,765 2,890
:
All :
California 3/ …………..: 50,000 50,000
2,000 2,000
Florida ………………..: 104,600 103,000
4,707 4,635
Texas 3/ ……………….: 1,776 2,015
76 86
:
United States …………..: 156,376 155,015
6,783 6,721
:
Grapefruit :
White :
Florida ………………..: 4,150 4,000
176 170
:
Colored :
Florida ………………..: 11,500 11,000
489 468
:
All :
California 3/ …………..: 4,000 4,000
160 160
Florida ………………..: 15,650 15,000
665 638
Texas 3/ ……………….: 5,700 6,000
228 240
:
United States …………..: 25,350 25,000
1,053 1,038
:
Tangerines and mandarins :
Arizona 3/ 4/ …………….: 200 220
8 9
California 3/ 4/ ………….: 14,500 15,500
580 620
Florida ………………….: 2,900 2,500
138 119
:
United States …………….: 17,600 18,220
726 748
:
Lemons 3/ :
Arizona ………………….: 1,800 2,200
72 88
California ……………….: 19,000 20,000
760 800
:
United States …………….: 20,800 22,200
832 888
:
Tangelos :
Florida ………………….: 880 700
40 32
——————————
——————————
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85;
grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and
California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80;
tangelos-90.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel)
and midseason varieties in Florida
and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in
Florida.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
—-
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop
:—————————–
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
——————————
—-
: 1,000 acres
:
Grains and hay :
Barley …………………….: 2,975 2,443
Corn for grain 1/ …………..: 90,597 83,136
Corn for silage …………….: (NA) 6,371
Hay, all …………………..: (NA) 57,092
Alfalfa ………………….: (NA) 18,445
All other ………………..: (NA) 38,647
Oats ………………………: 2,723 1,029
Proso millet ……………….: 505 430
Rice ………………………: 2,939 2,919
Rye ……………………….: 1,434 258
Sorghum for grain 1/ ………..: 7,138 6,401
Sorghum for silage ………….: (NA) 315
Wheat, all …………………: 56,822 46,381
Winter …………………..: 42,399 40,452 32,304
Durum ……………………: 1,398 1,337
Other spring ……………..: 13,025 12,740
:
Oilseeds :
Canola …………………….: 1,714.0 1,555.7
Cottonseed …………………: (X) (X)
Flaxseed …………………..: 311 302
Mustard seed ……………….: 33.6 31.2
Peanuts ……………………: 1,354.0 1,325.0
Rapeseed …………………..: 2.2 2.1
Safflower ………………….: 181.5 170.2
Soybeans for beans ………….: 83,701 83,061
Sunflower ………………….: 1,560.8 1,507.6
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all ………………..: 11,037.0 9,707.4
Upland …………………..: 10,845.0 9,518.0
American Pima …………….: 192.0 189.4
Sugarbeets …………………: 1,161.6 1,147.2
Sugarcane ………………….: (NA) 874.1
Tobacco ……………………: (NA) 378.4
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ………..: 24.0 16.8
Dry edible beans ……………: 1,718.9 1,665.7
Dry edible peas …………….: 935.0 899.5
Lentils ……………………: 281.0 259.0
Wrinkled seed peas ………….: (NA) (NA)
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) …………….: (NA) 7.9
Hops ………………………: (NA) 38.0
Peppermint oil ……………..: (NA) 63.1
Potatoes, all ………………: 1,061.1 1,049.5
Spring …………………..: 73.8 71.1
Summer …………………..: 50.4 48.9
Fall …………………….: 936.9 929.5
Spearmint oil ………………: (NA) 24.4
Sweet potatoes ……………..: 137.3 135.2
Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ……………: (NA) 0.4
——————————
—-
See footnote(s) at end of table.
–continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year.
Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
———–
: Yield per acre :
Production
Crop
:—————————–
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014
: 2015
——————————
———–
: —— 1,000
—–
:
Grains and hay :
Barley ……………………..
Corn for grain ………………bushels: 171.0 14,215,532
Corn for silage ………………..tons: 20.1 128,048
Hay, all ………………………
Alfalfa ……………………..
All other ……………………tons: 2.03 78,352
Oats ……………………….
Proso millet ………………..bushels: 31.4 13,483
Rice 3/ ………………………..
Rye ………………………..
Sorghum for grain ……………bushels: 67.6 432,575
Sorghum for silage ……………..tons: 13.1 4,123
Wheat, all ………………….bushels: 43.7 2,025,651
Winter ……………………
Durum …………………….
Other spring ………………bushels: 46.7 595,038
:
Oilseeds :
Canola ………………………
Cottonseed …………………….tons: (X) 5,314.0
Flaxseed ……………………
Mustard seed …………………pounds: 930 29,004
Peanuts ……………………..
Rapeseed …………………….
Safflower ……………………
Soybeans for beans …………..bushels: 47.8 3,968,823
Sunflower ……………………
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 3/ ………………..bales: 795 16,084.0
Upland 3/ …………………..bales: 781 15,496.0
American Pima 3/ …………….bales: 1,490 588.0
Sugarbeets …………………….tons: 27.4 31,386
Sugarcane ……………………..
Tobacco ……………………..
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas 3/ ………….cwt: 1,339 225
Dry edible beans 3/ ……………..cwt: 1,753 29,206
Dry edible peas 3/ ………………cwt: 1,907 17,155
Lentils 3/ ……………………..cwt: 1,300 3,367
Wrinkled seed peas ………………cwt: (NA) 618
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) ………………pounds: 1,030 8,100
Hops ………………………..
Peppermint oil ……………….pounds: 90 5,692
Potatoes, all …………………..cwt: 426 446,693
Spring ……………………….
Summer ……………………….
Fall …………………………
Spearmint oil ………………..pounds: 114 2,784
Sweet potatoes ………………….cwt: 219 29,584
Taro (Hawaii) ………………..pounds: (NA) 3,240
——————————
———–
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.
3/ Yield in pounds.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
—-
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop
:—————————–
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
——————————
—-
: hectares
:
Grains and hay :
Barley …………………….: 1,203,950 988,660
Corn for grain 1/ …………..:36,663,700 33,644,310
Corn for silage …………….: (NA) 2,578,280
Hay, all 2/ ………………..: (NA) 23,104,560
Alfalfa ………………….: (NA) 7,464,510
All other ………………..: (NA) 15,640,050
Oats ………………………: 1,101,970 416,430
Proso millet ……………….: 204,370 174,020
Rice ………………………: 1,189,380 1,181,290
Rye ……………………….: 580,330 104,410
Sorghum for grain 1/ ………..: 2,888,680 2,590,420
Sorghum for silage ………….: (NA) 127,480
Wheat, all 2/ ………………:22,995,300 18,769,930
Winter …………………..:17,
Durum ……………………: 565,760 541,070
Other spring ……………..: 5,271,090 5,155,750
:
Oilseeds :
Canola …………………….: 693,640 629,580
Cottonseed …………………: (X) (X)
Flaxseed …………………..: 125,860 122,220
Mustard seed ……………….: 13,600 12,630
Peanuts ……………………: 547,950 536,210
Rapeseed …………………..: 890 850
Safflower ………………….: 73,450 68,880
Soybeans for beans ………….:33,872,960 33,613,960
Sunflower ………………….: 631,640 610,110
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ ……………..: 4,466,560 3,928,490
Upland …………………..: 4,388,860 3,851,840
American Pima …………….: 77,700 76,650
Sugarbeets …………………: 470,090 464,260
Sugarcane ………………….: (NA) 353,740
Tobacco ……………………: (NA) 153,120
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ………..: 9,710 6,800
Dry edible beans ……………: 695,620 674,090
Dry edible peas …………….: 378,390 364,020
Lentils ……………………: 113,720 104,810
Wrinkled seed peas ………….: (NA) (NA)
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) …………….: (NA) 3,200
Hops ………………………: (NA) 15,380
Peppermint oil ……………..: (NA) 25,540
Potatoes, all 2/ ……………: 429,420 424,720
Spring …………………..: 29,870 28,770
Summer …………………..: 20,400 19,790
Fall …………………….: 379,150 376,160
Spearmint oil ………………: (NA) 9,870
Sweet potatoes ……………..: 55,560 54,710
Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ……………: (NA) 150
——————————
—-
See footnote(s) at end of table.
–continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
—-
: Yield per hectare : Production
Crop
:—————————–
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
——————————
—-
: metric tons
:
Grains and hay :
Barley …………………….: 3.89 3,849,230
Corn for grain ……………..: 10.73 361,091,140
Corn for silage …………….: 45.05 116,163,190
Hay, all 2/ ………………..: 5.49 126,822,610
Alfalfa ………………….: 7.47 55,742,870
All other ………………..: 4.54 71,079,740
Oats ………………………: 2.43 1,011,460
Proso millet ……………….: 1.76 305,790
Rice ………………………: 8.49 10,025,980
Rye ……………………….: 1.75 182,610
Sorghum for grain …………..: 4.24 10,987,910
Sorghum for silage ………….: 29.34 3,740,320
Wheat, all 2/ ………………: 2.94 55,129,190
Winter …………………..: 2.87 37,490,110
Durum ……………………: 2.67 1,444,790
Other spring ……………..: 3.14 16,194,280
:
Oilseeds :
Canola …………………….: 1.81 1,138,970
Cottonseed …………………: (X) 4,820,780
Flaxseed …………………..: 1.32 161,750
Mustard seed ……………….: 1.04 13,160
Peanuts ……………………: 4.41 2,363,260
Rapeseed …………………..: 1.38 1,170
Safflower ………………….: 1.37 94,640
Soybeans for beans ………….: 3.21 108,013,660
Sunflower ………………….: 1.65 1,004,630
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ ……………..: 0.89 3,501,880
Upland …………………..: 0.88 3,373,860
American Pima …………….: 1.67 128,020
Sugarbeets …………………: 61.33 28,472,900
Sugarcane ………………….: 79.17 28,004,790
Tobacco ……………………: 2.60 397,540
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ………..: 1.50 10,180
Dry edible beans ……………: 1.97 1,324,760
Dry edible peas …………….: 2.14 778,140
Lentils ……………………: 1.46 152,720
Wrinkled seed peas ………….: (NA) 28,030
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) …………….: 1.15 3,670
Hops ………………………: 2.09 32,200
Peppermint oil ……………..: 0.10 2,580
Potatoes, all 2/ ……………: 47.71 20,261,650
Spring …………………..: 35.64 1,025,480
Summer …………………..: 36.11 714,680
Fall …………………….: 49.24 18,521,490
Spearmint oil ………………: 0.13 1,260
Sweet potatoes ……………..: 24.53 1,341,910
Taro (Hawaii) ………………: (NA) 1,470
——————————
—-
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Total may not add due to rounding.
3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year,
except citrus which is for the 2014-2015 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
—
: Production
Crop
:—————————–
: 2014 : 2015
——————————
—
: 1,000
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ……………………….
Lemons …………………………
Oranges …………………………
Tangelos (Florida) ………………..tons: 40 32
Tangerines and mandarins …………..tons: 726 748
:
Noncitrus :
Apples ………………….. 1,000 pounds: 11,251.2
Apricots …………………………
Bananas (Hawaii) ………………..pounds:
Grapes …………………………
Olives (California) ……………….tons: 82.3
Papayas (Hawaii) ………………..pounds:
Peaches …………………………
Pears …………………………
Prunes, dried (California) …………tons: 95.0
Prunes and plums (excludes California) tons: 14.8
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) …….pounds: 1,870,000
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ……….tons: 36.0
Pecans, in-shell ………………..pounds: 265,370
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ……..tons: 565.0
Maple syrup ……………………
——————————
—
1/ Production years are 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year,
except citrus which is for the 2014-2015 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
—
: Production
Crop
:—————————–
: 2014 : 2015
——————————
—
: metric tons
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit …………………………
Lemons …………………………
Oranges …………………………
Tangelos (Florida) ……………………: 36,290 29,030
Tangerines and mandarins ………………: 658,620 678,570
:
Noncitrus :
Apples …………………………
Apricots …………………………
Bananas (Hawaii) ……………………..:
Grapes …………………………
Olives (California) …………………..: 74,660
Papayas (Hawaii) ……………………..:
Peaches …………………………
Pears …………………………
Prunes, dried (California) …………….: 86,180
Prunes and plums (excludes California) ….: 13,430
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) ………….: 848,220
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) …………..: 32,660
Pecans, in-shell ……………………..: 120,370
Walnuts, in-shell (California) …………: 512,560
Maple syrup …………………………
——————————
—
1/ Production years are 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
January Weather Summary
Mid-winter warmth dominated the western United States, accompanied in most
areas by unfavorably dry conditions. California’s spell without meaningful
precipitation stretched to 6 weeks by the end of January, increasing the
likelihood that drought will continue through a fourth consecutive growing
season. Among the most serious drought-related issues in California was the
lack of snowpack in key watershed areas, including the Sierra Nevada. The
snowpack concerns also extended northward into the Cascades, where
season-to-date precipitation has been adequate but persistent warmth has
resulted in melting of existing snow or precipitation falling as rain.
Farther east, beneficial precipitation fell across much of the Nation’s
mid-section, including the High Plains. Some of the heaviest precipitation
arrived at month’s end, when a developing storm moved from the southern
Rockies into the Midwest. Despite the January moisture, the Statewide
portion
of the winter wheat rated in good to excellent condition decreased by 7 to
15 percentage points between November 23 and February 1 in each of the
Plains’ seven major production States from Montana to Texas. By month’s end,
wheat rated in the good to excellent categories ranged from 38 percent in
Colorado to 61 percent in Nebraska.
Meanwhile, precipitation events were frequent but generally light across the
Midwest, South, and East. Notable exceptions included a late-January
blizzard
along the northern Atlantic Coast and a snow storm that began to unfold at
month’s end across the Midwest. Across the southernmost Corn Belt, a
mid-month cold snap without the benefit of a protective snow cover
threatened
the poorly established soft red winter wheat crop. Elsewhere, areas being
watched due to developing dryness included the mid-South and the southern
tip
of Florida.
January Agricultural Summary
Precipitation levels for the month were generally within 3 inches of normal
across the Nation. The major exception to this trend occurred in northern
California and the Pacific coast of Oregon where recorded precipitation
levels in some areas were more than 6 inches below normal. Despite a wet
December, dry weather on the Pacific coast has caused drought conditions to
continue in the area. Temperatures were above average for the month from the
northern Great Plains across the western United States with areas in the
central Rocky Mountains and the Great Basin recording temperatures more than
8°F above normal. Temperatures were cooler from the southern Great Plains
to
the Atlantic coast with areas bordering the Great Lakes and the Texas Gulf
Coast recording average temperatures more than 4°F below normal.
Winter wheat condition declined over the previous month in several wheat
producing States. Kansas winter wheat condition was rated at 46 percent in
the good to excellent categories as of February 1, down 3 percentage points
from the beginning of January. Colorado winter wheat condition dropped
24 percentage points from the beginning of the month, with 46 percent rated
in good to excellent condition on February 1. Montana winter wheat was rated
58 percent good to excellent at the end of the month, down 7 percentage
points from January 4. Lack of protective snow cover across the Great Plains
is generally attributed to the condition declines.
In Arizona, alfalfa conditions were mostly fair to excellent, depending on
location. Harvesting occurred on two-thirds of the alfalfa acreage across
the
State. Sheep continue to graze on various alfalfa fields in many areas.
Precipitation throughout the month helped maintain soil moisture levels in
range and pasture. Rangeland conditions vary widely from very poor to good,
depending on location.
Early month precipitation saturated some fields and limited access for
California producers. Wheat, oats, and other winter forage grew well
throughout the month but more rain is needed as the crops develop. Pruning
and shredding in tree fruit and grape vineyards proceeded throughout the
month. Navel oranges, mandarins, lemons, grapefruit, and limes were
harvested, packed, and exported during January. The month began with pruning
and shredding in almond orchards and shifted to walnut and pistachio
orchards
as the month proceeded. Sporadic rain improved some rangeland conditions but
beef cattle had to be fed with supplements with rangeland in need of more
rain for growth. More rain is necessary to help with the germination and
development of foothill grasses and forbs. Bee hives started to be
positioned
in preparation for the almond pollination.
Cool conditions, including some reports of snow, have impacted the
development of winter wheat and oats across Texas. Spring wheat and oats
seedings neared completion by the end of the month in South Texas. Cotton
harvest in the Northern High and Low Plains was near completion. Many
producers are beginning preparations for 2015 corn and cotton planting.
Vegetable processing and harvest continued. Livestock were generally in fair
to good condition across the State as supplemental feeding continued.
Fieldwork and soil preparation for spring plantings occurred as field
conditions allowed in the Panhandle of Florida. Sugarcane harvest took place
in Glades and Hendry counties throughout the month. Pasture conditions
started the month fair to good but improved with increased rainfall as
January proceeded. Livestock producers provided supplemental feed as
necessary. Citrus processing plants were up and running at full capacity
throughout the month. Navel orange harvest slowed throughout the month as
the
season completed. Other citrus harvested included Hamlin and Pineapple
oranges, colored and white grapefruit and honey tangerines. Grove activity
included running irrigation, fertilizing, and some spraying.
Crop Comments
Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons),
down 20 percent from last season’s final utilization and down 13 percent
from
last month’s forecast. The Row Count Survey conducted February 2-3 showed
69 percent of the rows were harvested.
Grapefruit: The 2014-2015 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at
1.04 million tons, down 1 percent from last season’s final utilization but
unchanged from last month’s forecast. In Florida, current fruit size of
white
and colored grapefruit is smaller than average. Also in Florida, the current
drop rate for white is below last season’s record high level; however it is
the third highest on record. Droppage for the colored grapefruit in Florida
is expected to be a new record high this season at harvest. California and
Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from January.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is
forecast at 748,000 tons, up 3 percent from last season’s final utilization
but unchanged from the January forecast. In Florida, harvest of early season
varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) is relatively complete for the season.
Arizona and California, the tangerines and mandarins production forecast are
carried forward from January.
Florida citrus: Across the citrus growing region, reported rainfall amounts
were slightly less than average. Most citrus growing counties recorded two
inches of rainfall or less during the month; while some East Coast counties
and northern counties had slightly more rainfall. Daily high temperatures
were mostly in the 70s, while minimum temperatures were usually in the 40s.
All citrus producing areas were void of abnormally dry or drought conditions
throughout the month.
Processing plants were up and running at full capacity, taking both
eliminations and field run fruit. Early-mid orange varieties harvested for
processing included both Hamlin and Pineapple oranges. Some plants closed
over the weekends in order to eliminate the gap between the early-mid and
late variety oranges. Early variety fruit harvested for the fresh market
included Navel oranges, Sunburst tangerines, white and colored grapefruit,
and tangelos.
Grove activity included spraying, irrigation, and mowing in preparation for
harvest. Citrus growers continued field practices to combat greening. Field
workers across the citrus region observed patchy pinhead bloom on early
oranges.
California citrus: The color in navel oranges has been reported to be
improving and exports were on the rise. Mandarin oranges, Navel oranges,
Cara
Cara, grapefruits, finger limes, and lemons continued to be packed. Growers
treated citrus groves for fungal diseases and the Fuller Rose Beetle to
maintain good quality and meet export requirements.
California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Pruning and shredding were the month’s
main reported activities, as well as application of pre-emergence herbicides
on nut trees, and fumigating for replanting. The export of stored table
grapes had mostly ended. Kiwifruit continued to be packed and exported for
domestic and foreign markets. Avocados were harvested. Persimmons continued
to be harvested and sold at roadside stands. Minimal damage from mid-month
cold temperatures was reported in a few isolated spots. The sale of stored
nuts continued to be dominated by domestic markets.
Some early bud-swell was reported in almond orchards and walnuts were
thinned. Weed spraying picked up in the vineyards and orchards late in the
month. Copper sprays were applied on cherry orchards.
Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2014 is forecast at
30.9 million tons, of which 29.3 million tons was utilized for sugar and
1.55 million tons for seed. Total production is up slightly from both last
month and the previous year. Producers intend to harvest 874,100 acres for
sugar and seed during the 2014 crop year, unchanged from the previous
forecast. Expected yield for sugar and seed is forecast at 35.3 tons per
acre, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 1.5 tons per acre from
the
previous season. Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas sugarcane estimates were
carried forward from January.
Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1
forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 69 percent of the
United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start
of
the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined
with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From
mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In
August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage
surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used
to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct
grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April,
and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September
for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and
Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their
analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board
(ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published
February 1 forecast.
Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A
new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-
season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the
end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local
utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1
production forecasts, the “Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical measure
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
The “Root Mean Square Error” for the February 1 orange production forecast
is
4.0 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years
(one
freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the “Root Mean Square Error” is
also 4.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by
more than 4.0 percent, regardless of exclusions. Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
6.8 percent, or 6.9 percent excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates
during
the past 20 years have averaged 325,000 tons (322,000 tons excluding
abnormal
seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of exclusions.
The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8
times
and above 12 times (below 8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal
seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecast this
year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics
Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent
to [email protected]
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops
Branch……………………
Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops
Section…………………..
Brent Chittenden – Oats, Rye,
Wheat…………………….
Angie Considine – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings,
Sorghum…………………..
Tony Dahlman – Crop Weather,
Barley……………………
Chris Hawthorn – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso
Millet……………………
James Johanson – County Estimates,
Hay………………………
Bianca Pruneda – Peanuts,
Rice……………………..
Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other
Oilseeds………………….
Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops
Section…………… (202) 720-2127
Vincent Davis – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries,
Cherries.. (202) 720-2157
Fleming Gibson – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical
Fruits………… (202) 720-5412
Greg Lemmons – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes
………………. (202) 720-4285
Dave Losh –
Hops……………………..
709-2400
Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,
Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans
………………. (202) 720-3250
Daphne Schauber – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts
…………….. (202) 720-4215
Chris Singh – Apples, Apricots, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco
…………………….. (202) 720-4288
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ways:
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[email protected].
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