Turkey Hatchery
ISSN: 1949-1964
Released September 15, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Eggs in Incubators on September 1 Down 15 Percent from Last Year
Turkey eggs in incubators on September 1, 2015, in the United States totaled
23.2 million, down 15 percent from September 1, 2014. Eggs in incubators were
down 14 percent from the August 1, 2015 total of 27.0 million eggs.
Poults Hatched During August Down 6 Percent from Last Year
Turkey poults hatched during August 2015, in the United States totaled
22.2 million, down 6 percent from August 2014. Poults hatched were down
3 percent from the July 2015 total of 23.0 million poults.
Net Poults Placed During August Down 6 Percent from Last Year
The 21.9 million net poults placed during August 2015 in the United States
were down 6 percent from the number placed during the same month a year
earlier. Net placements were down 4 percent from the July 2015 total of
22.8 million.
Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2013-2016
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Eggs in incubators :Percent of: Poults hatched :Percent of
: first of month : previous : entire month : previous
Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year
:2014-2015 :2015-2016 : :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :
: : : : : :
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: --- 1,000 eggs -- percent 1,000 poults percent
:
September ........: 27,388 23,212 85 20,974 22,844 109
October ..........: 27,842 22,928 23,744 104
November .........: 28,004 21,308 21,936 103
December .........: 28,964 22,074 24,660 112
January ..........: 29,281 23,430 24,023 103
February .........: 27,144 21,486 21,721 101
March ............: 28,250 22,380 24,179 108
April ............: 28,799 22,800 23,261 102
May ..............: 26,845 24,189 22,161 92
June .............: 27,232 23,647 23,129 98
July .............: 27,357 24,405 22,966 94
August ...........: 27,046 23,500 22,165 94
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Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2013-2015
[Includes imports and excludes exports]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Total all :Percent of: Cumulative :Percent of
: breeds : previous : total : previous
Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year
: : : : : :
:2013-2014 :2014-2015 : :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 poults percent -- 1,000 poults -- percent
:
September ........: 19,624 21,169 108 19,624 21,169 108
October ..........: 20,908 21,695 104 40,532 42,864 106
November .........: 20,042 20,379 102 60,574 63,243 104
December .........: 21,138 22,516 107 81,712 85,759 105
January ..........: 22,096 22,383 101 103,808 108,142 104
February .........: 20,889 20,119 96 124,697 128,261 103
March ............: 21,557 21,885 102 146,254 150,146 103
April ............: 22,621 21,851 97 168,875 171,997 102
May ..............: 23,310 21,329 92 192,185 193,326 101
June .............: 23,452 23,014 98 215,637 216,340 100
July .............: 24,234 22,776 94 239,871 239,116 100
August ...........: 23,224 21,904 94 263,095 261,020 99
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all
known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all
known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their
lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey
hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire
as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to
respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not
respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all
hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.
Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive
the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values.
Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and
to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated
based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare
these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic
trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural
Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to
State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates
are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult
Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.
Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August
31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period
corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be
available for slaughter during the calendar year.
States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho,
Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina,
New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and
Wisconsin.
Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected
data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey
Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery
Production - Annual Summary report in April.
Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known
operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However,
estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While the affects of these
errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the
"Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table.
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past
performance and is computed using the differences between first and final
estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the
first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.2 percent. This means
that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or
below the current estimate of 23.2 million eggs by more than 1.2 percent.
Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent.
Reliability of September Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate
:square error : confidence : : : : :
: : level :------------------------------------------------------
Item : : : : : : Months
: : : : : :---------------------------
: : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ----
:
Eggs in incubators ................: 1.2 2.1 206 5 1,221 18 6
:
Poults hatched ....................: 0.5 0.8 85 0 211 11 12
:
Net poult placements ..............: 1.5 2.6 276 11 659 9 15
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Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics
Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........................................................ (202) 720-3570
Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ................................. (202) 720-4447
Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage ........................................................ (202) 720-4751
Heidi Gleich - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ......................................... (202) 720-0585
Michael Klamm - Poultry Slaughter ......................................................... (202) 720-3040
Tom Kruchten - Census of Aquaculture ...................................................... (202) 690-4870
Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs ................................................................ (202) 690-8632
Sammy Neal - Catfish Production, Egg Products, Mink, Trout Production, Turkey Hatchery,
Turkeys Raised ......................................................................... (202) 720-3244
Joshua O'Rear - Honey ..................................................................... (202) 690-3676
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