ISSN: 1949-1565
Released April 17, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Potato Stocks Up 9 Percent From April 2014
The 13 major potato States held 130 million cwt of potatoes in storage April
1, 2015, up 9 percent from April 2014. Potatoes in storage accounted for
32 percent of the 2014 fall storage States’ production, 1 percentage point
higher than last year. Potato disappearance, at 272 million cwt, was up 1
percent from April 1, 2014. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 22.1 million
cwt, was 1 percent higher than last year. Processors in the 9 major States
used 144 million cwt of potatoes for the season, up 3 percent from April
2014.
Fall Potato Production and Stocks – 13 Major States: April 1, 2014-2015
[Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year’s crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2013 totaled 25.6
million cwt]
—————————————————————————————————————————————-
: Crop of 2013 : Crop of 2014
:———————————————————————————————————————-
State : : Stocks : April stocks : : Stocks : Stocks : April stocks
: Production : April 1, : as a percent : Production : February 1, : April 1, : as a percent
: : 2014 : of : : 2015 : 2015 : of
: : : production : : : : production
—————————————————————————————————————————————-
: ——- 1,000 cwt —— percent ————— 1,000 cwt ————— percent
:
California ……: 3,504 800 23 4,038 1,600 700 17
Colorado ……..: 20,304 7,000 34 23,735 13,300 8,800 37
Idaho ………..: 131,131 47,000 36 135,920 76,000 50,000 37
Maine ………..: 15,660 4,400 28 15,150 8,500 5,500 36
Michigan ……..: 15,840 2,100 13 15,725 5,000 1,650 10
Minnesota …….: 17,325 6,000 35 16,800 7,800 5,000 30
Montana ………: 3,441 1,800 52 3,616 3,400 2,000 55
Nebraska ……..: 8,418 2,200 26 6,438 2,700 1,700 26
New York ……..: 4,959 650 13 4,424 1,400 500 11
North Dakota ….: 22,620 6,500 29 24,255 12,400 7,400 31
:
Oregon ……….: 21,582 7,600 35 22,562 13,200 8,200 36
Washington ……: 96,000 26,000 27 101,475 44,000 29,000 29
Wisconsin …….: 26,040 7,000 27 27,090 13,400 9,100 34
:
Total ………..: 386,824 119,050 31 401,228 202,700 129,550 32
:
Klamath Basin 1/ : (NA) 1,850 (X) (NA) 3,000 1,500 (X)
—————————————————————————————————————————————-
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Included in the 13 States total.
Fall Potato Production and Stocks – 13 Major States: 2005-2014
[Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
————————————————————————————————-
Crop : Stocks
:—————————————————————————————
year :Production:December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1
————————————————————————————————-
: 1,000 cwt
:
2005 ….: 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560
2006 ….: 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460
2007 ….: 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420
2008 ….: 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300
2009 ….: 383,962 265,800 234,300 203,500 169,700 128,700 89,610 55,120
2010 ….: 357,467 240,200 209,400 180,300 148,500 111,000 72,000 41,320
2011 ….: 382,318 253,000 (NA) 187,500 (NA) 115,650 (NA) 43,340
2012 ….: 410,367 271,500 (NA) 204,600 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
2013 ….: 386,824 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 119,050 (NA) 46,885
2014 ….: 401,228 267,400 (NA) 202,700 (NA) 129,550
————————————————————————————————-
(NA) Not available.
Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing, 9 States: 2012-2014
[Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced]
———————————————————————————————————————
State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To :
crop year :December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 : Season
———————————————————————————————————————
: 1,000 cwt
:
Idaho and Oregon, Malheur :
2012 ………………….: 27,900 34,740 41,890 49,980 57,750 65,430 73,430 89,780
2013 ………………….: 25,770 32,060 39,090 46,320 53,755 61,780 70,425 85,280
2014 ………………….: 27,685 33,995 40,850 47,905 55,720
:
Maine 1/ :
2012 ………………….: 1,890 2,380 3,005 3,600 4,290 5,075 5,740 7,720
2013 ………………….: 1,570 1,990 2,510 3,060 3,680 4,240 4,800 6,315
2014 ………………….: 1,410 1,845 2,415 2,925 3,475
:
Washington and Oregon, Other :
2012 ………………….: 31,295 37,730 43,820 51,765 57,915 64,500 70,470 80,400
2013 ………………….: 31,575 37,990 45,420 52,690 59,025 64,905 72,325 80,655
2014 ………………….: 31,870 37,190 42,715 50,380 57,340
:
Other States 2/ :
2012 ………………….: 14,270 16,765 19,785 22,520 25,170 28,320 31,100 40,395
2013 ………………….: 11,365 14,280 17,470 20,475 23,695 26,990 30,195 37,425
2014 ………………….: 13,440 16,730 20,190 23,660 27,300
:
Total :
2012 ………………….: 75,355 91,615 108,500 127,865 145,125 163,325 180,740 218,295
2013 ………………….: 70,280 86,320 104,490 122,545 140,155 157,915 177,745 209,675
2014 ………………….: 74,405 89,760 106,170 124,870 143,835
:
Dehydrated 3/ :
2012 ………………….: 13,965 17,640 22,000 26,105 30,135 34,610 38,945 47,305
2013 ………………….: 12,065 15,875 19,835 23,380 27,140 31,095 34,895 44,385
2014 ………………….: 12,935 16,170 19,770 23,450 27,150
———————————————————————————————————————
1/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips.
2/ Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Monthly amounts exclude quantities
used for potato chips in Wisconsin.
3/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington.
Potato Shrinkage and Loss – 13 Fall Storage States: 2011-2014
——————————————————————————————–
Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To
year :December 1 : January 1 :February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1
——————————————————————————————–
: million cwt
:
2011 …: 13.7 16.4 18.8 20.8 22.9 24.5 25.9
2012 …: 13.8 16.4 18.9 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
2013 …: (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 21.9 25.0 27.6
2014 …: 14.2 16.6 18.2 20.4 22.1
——————————————————————————————–
(NA) Not available.
Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall
potato producing States, which account for 90 percent of the United States
all potato production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are
contacted during the months of December, February, April, and June to obtain
the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the month, as well as
shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States
(Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington,
and Wisconsin).
Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys
along with federal administrative data is used to establish estimates of
stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are
reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical
estimates.
Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the
previous estimating period are subject to revision based on late and/or
updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information
available, including disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any
necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the
Potatoes Annual Summary.
Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because
all operations holding potato stocks are not included in the sample. Survey
results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission,
duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly,
but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 stocks estimate,
the “Root Mean Square Error”, a statistical measure based on past
performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 stocks estimate
and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate.
The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is
computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the “Root Mean
Square Error”. Probability statements can be made concerning expected
differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season
estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s estimate are not
different from those influencing recent years.
The “Root Mean Square Error” for the April 1 stocks estimate is 3.6 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of
130 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than
3.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 6.3 percent.
Changes between the April 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during
the past 20 years have averaged 3.29 million cwt, ranging from 200,000 cwt to
8.98 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the April 1 estimate has been
below the final estimate 12 times, and above 7 times.
Fall Potato Preliminary and Final April 1 Stocks – United States: 2004-2014
Crop Years
——————————————————————————–
Crop : Preliminary : Percent of : Final
year : stocks : final : stocks
——————————————————————————–
: 1,000 cwt percent 1,000 cwt
:
2004 …..: 129,620 100.6 128,900
2005 …..: 113,900 98.4 115,700
2006 …..: 113,600 94.0 120,900
2007 …..: 133,600 106.5 125,500
2008 …..: 114,550 98.9 115,800
2009 …..: 129,100 100.3 128,700
2010 …..: 105,600 95.1 111,000
2011 …..: 115,850 100.2 115,650
2012 …..: (NA) (NA) (NA)
2013 …..: 112,150 94.2 119,050
2014 …..: 129,550 (NA) (NA)
——————————————————————————–
(NA) Not available.
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics
Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch……………………………………………… (202) 720-2127
Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section…………… (202) 720-2127
Vincent Davis – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries, Cherries.. (202) 720-2157
Fleming Gibson – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits………… (202) 720-5412
Greg Lemmons – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ………………. (202) 720-4285
Dave Losh – Hops……………………………………………………….. (360) 709-2400
Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,
Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ………………. (202) 720-3250
Daphne Schauber – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts …………….. (202) 720-4215
Chris Singh – Apples, Apricots, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco …………………….. (202) 720-4288
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