ISSN: 1936-3737
Released March 10, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Orange Production Down 1 Percent from February Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2014-2015 season is
6.68 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and
down 2 percent from the 2013-2014 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 102 million boxes (4.59 million tons), is down 1 percent from
the previous forecast and down 2 percent from last season's final
utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at
47.0 million boxes (2.12 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous
forecast and down 12 percent last season's final utilization. The Florida
Valencia orange forecast, at 55.0 million boxes (2.48 million tons), is
unchanged from previous forecast but up 7 percent from last season's final
utilization.
The California Valencia orange forecast is 10.0 million boxes (400,000 tons),
unchanged from previous forecast but down 9 percent from the previous season.
This results in a California all orange forecast of 50.0 million boxes
(2.00 million tons), unchanged from the January forecast. Objective survey
measurements taken during January and February indicated that fruit set per
tree was lower than the previous year and the lowest since 2009, but the
measured average fruit size was slightly larger than the previous year. The
forecast for Texas is carried forward from January.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the
2014-2015 season is 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 1 percent
from the February forecast and down 1 percent from last season's final yield
of 1.57 gallons per box. The non-Valencia portion is projected at
1.45 gallons per box, down 1 percent from last month and down 5 percent from
last season's yield. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.65 gallons,
down 2 percent from last month's forecast but up slightly from last season's
final yield of 1.64 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the
processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past
several seasons.
This report was approved on March 10, 2015.
Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Robert Johansson
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
James M. Harris
Contents
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2013 and 2014......... 4
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2013-2014 and Forecasted
March 1, 2015............................................................................................ 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2014 and 2015.. 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2014 and 2015.... 8
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2014 and 2015.............................. 10
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2014 and 2015................................ 11
Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12
Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12
February Weather Summary................................................................................. 13
February Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13
Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14
Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 16
Information Contacts..................................................................................... 17
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2013 and 2014
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:---------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons --
:
For sugar :
Florida ......................: 400.0 395.9 34.3 39.2 13,720 15,519
Hawaii 2/ ....................: 15.5 16.8 87.2 82.0 1,352 1,378
Louisiana 2/ .................: 410.0 385.0 30.5 30.0 12,505 11,550
Texas 2/ .....................: 34.1 31.5 42.4 37.9 1,446 1,194
:
United States ................: 859.6 829.2 33.8 35.7 29,023 29,641
:
For seed :
Florida ......................: 16.0 16.1 42.5 42.6 680 686
Hawaii 2/ ....................: 2.2 2.2 20.5 20.4 45 45
Louisiana 2/ .................: 32.0 25.0 30.5 30.0 976 750
Texas 2/ .....................: 1.0 1.6 37.0 37.9 37 61
:
United States ................: 51.2 44.9 33.9 34.3 1,738 1,542
:
For sugar and seed :
Florida ......................: 416.0 412.0 34.6 39.3 14,400 16,205
Hawaii 2/ ....................: 17.7 19.0 78.9 74.9 1,397 1,423
Louisiana 2/ .................: 442.0 410.0 30.5 30.0 13,481 12,300
Texas 2/ .....................: 35.1 33.1 42.3 37.9 1,483 1,255
:
United States ................: 910.8 874.1 33.8 35.7 30,761 31,183
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2014 Summary" released January 2015.
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2013-2014 and Forecasted
March 1, 2015
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the
following year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2013-2014 : 2014-2015 : 2013-2014 : 2014-2015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------
Oranges :
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ :
California 3/ ..............: 39,000 40,000 1,560 1,600
Florida ....................: 53,300 47,000 2,398 2,115
Texas 3/ ...................: 1,400 1,670 60 71
:
United States ..............: 93,700 88,670 4,018 3,786
:
Valencia :
California .................: 11,000 10,000 440 400
Florida ....................: 51,300 55,000 2,309 2,475
Texas 3/ ...................: 376 345 16 15
:
United States ..............: 62,676 65,345 2,765 2,890
:
All :
California .................: 50,000 50,000 2,000 2,000
Florida ....................: 104,600 102,000 4,707 4,590
Texas 3/ ...................: 1,776 2,015 76 86
:
United States ..............: 156,376 154,015 6,783 6,676
:
Grapefruit :
White :
Florida ....................: 4,150 4,000 176 170
:
Colored :
Florida ....................: 11,500 11,000 489 468
:
All :
California 3/ ..............: 4,000 4,000 160 160
Florida ....................: 15,650 15,000 665 638
Texas 3/ ...................: 5,700 6,000 228 240
:
United States ..............: 25,350 25,000 1,053 1,038
:
Tangerines and mandarins :
Arizona 3/ 4/ ................: 200 220 8 9
California 3/ 4/ .............: 14,500 15,500 580 620
Florida ......................: 2,900 2,500 138 119
:
United States ................: 17,600 18,220 726 748
:
Lemons 3/ :
Arizona ......................: 1,800 2,200 72 88
California ...................: 19,000 20,000 760 800
:
United States ................: 20,800 22,200 832 888
:
Tangelos :
Florida ......................: 880 700 40 32
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80;
tangelos-90.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida
and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units -
United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 acres
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .........................: 2,975 2,443
Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 90,597 83,136
Corn for silage ................: (NA) 6,371
Hay, all .......................: (NA) 57,092
Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 18,445
All other ....................: (NA) 38,647
Oats ...........................: 2,723 1,029
Proso millet ...................: 505 430
Rice ...........................: 2,939 2,919
Rye ............................: 1,434 258
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 7,138 6,401
Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 315
Wheat, all .....................: 56,822 46,381
Winter .......................: 42,399 40,452 32,304
Durum ........................: 1,398 1,337
Other spring .................: 13,025 12,740
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .........................: 1,714.0 1,555.7
Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X)
Flaxseed .......................: 311 302
Mustard seed ...................: 33.6 31.2
Peanuts ........................: 1,354.0 1,325.0
Rapeseed .......................: 2.2 2.1
Safflower ......................: 181.5 170.2
Soybeans for beans .............: 83,701 83,061
Sunflower ......................: 1,560.8 1,507.6
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all ....................: 11,037.0 9,707.4
Upland .......................: 10,845.0 9,518.0
American Pima ................: 192.0 189.4
Sugarbeets .....................: 1,161.6 1,147.2
Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 874.1
Tobacco ........................: (NA) 378.4
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ...........: 24.0 16.8
Dry edible beans ...............: 1,718.9 1,665.7
Dry edible peas ................: 935.0 899.5
Lentils ........................: 281.0 259.0
Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA)
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 7.9
Hops ...........................: (NA) 38.0
Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 63.1
Potatoes, all ..................: 1,061.1 1,049.5
Spring .......................: 73.8 71.1
Summer .......................: 50.4 48.9
Fall .........................: 936.9 929.5
Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 24.4
Sweet potatoes .................: 137.3 135.2
Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units -
United States: 2014 and 2015 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per acre : Production
Crop :----------------------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 -----
:
Grains and hay :
Barley ..........................bushels: 72.4 176,794
Corn for grain ..................bushels: 171.0 14,215,532
Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 128,048
Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.45 139,798
Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.33 61,446
All other ........................tons: 2.03 78,352
Oats ............................bushels: 67.7 69,684
Proso millet ....................bushels: 31.4 13,483
Rice 3/ .............................cwt: 7,572 221,035
Rye .............................bushels: 27.9 7,189
Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 67.6 432,575
Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.1 4,123
Wheat, all ......................bushels: 43.7 2,025,651
Winter ........................bushels: 42.6 1,377,526
Durum .........................bushels: 39.7 53,087
Other spring ..................bushels: 46.7 595,038
:
Oilseeds :
Canola ...........................pounds: 1,614 2,510,995
Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,314.0
Flaxseed ........................bushels: 21.1 6,368
Mustard seed .....................pounds: 930 29,004
Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,932 5,210,100
Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,233 2,590
Safflower ........................pounds: 1,226 208,643
Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 47.8 3,968,823
Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,469 2,214,835
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 3/ ....................bales: 795 16,084.0
Upland 3/ .......................bales: 781 15,496.0
American Pima 3/ ................bales: 1,490 588.0
Sugarbeets .........................tons: 27.4 31,386
Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.7 31,183
Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,316 876,415
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas 3/ .............cwt: 1,339 225
Dry edible beans 3/ .................cwt: 1,753 29,206
Dry edible peas 3/ ..................cwt: 1,907 17,155
Lentils 3/ ..........................cwt: 1,300 3,367
Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 618
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,030 8,100
Hops .............................pounds: 1,868 70,995.9
Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 90 5,692
Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 426 446,693
Spring ............................cwt: 318 22,608
Summer ............................cwt: 322 15,756
Fall ..............................cwt: 439 408,329
Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 114 2,784
Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 219 29,584
Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 3,240
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.
3/ Yield in pounds.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units -
United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: hectares
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .........................: 1,203,950 988,660
Corn for grain 1/ ..............:36,663,700 33,644,310
Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,578,280
Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 23,104,560
Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 7,464,510
All other ....................: (NA) 15,640,050
Oats ...........................: 1,101,970 416,430
Proso millet ...................: 204,370 174,020
Rice ...........................: 1,189,380 1,181,290
Rye ............................: 580,330 104,410
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,888,680 2,590,420
Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 127,480
Wheat, all 2/ ..................:22,995,300 18,769,930
Winter .......................:17,158,450 16,370,520 13,073,110
Durum ........................: 565,760 541,070
Other spring .................: 5,271,090 5,155,750
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .........................: 693,640 629,580
Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X)
Flaxseed .......................: 125,860 122,220
Mustard seed ...................: 13,600 12,630
Peanuts ........................: 547,950 536,210
Rapeseed .......................: 890 850
Safflower ......................: 73,450 68,880
Soybeans for beans .............:33,872,960 33,613,960
Sunflower ......................: 631,640 610,110
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,466,560 3,928,490
Upland .......................: 4,388,860 3,851,840
American Pima ................: 77,700 76,650
Sugarbeets .....................: 470,090 464,260
Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 353,740
Tobacco ........................: (NA) 153,120
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ...........: 9,710 6,800
Dry edible beans ...............: 695,620 674,090
Dry edible peas ................: 378,390 364,020
Lentils ........................: 113,720 104,810
Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA)
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 3,200
Hops ...........................: (NA) 15,380
Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 25,540
Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 429,420 424,720
Spring .......................: 29,870 28,770
Summer .......................: 20,400 19,790
Fall .........................: 379,150 376,160
Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 9,870
Sweet potatoes .................: 55,560 54,710
Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 150
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units -
United States: 2014 and 2015 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per hectare : Production
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .........................: 3.89 3,849,230
Corn for grain .................: 10.73 361,091,140
Corn for silage ................: 45.05 116,163,190
Hay, all 2/ ....................: 5.49 126,822,610
Alfalfa ......................: 7.47 55,742,870
All other ....................: 4.54 71,079,740
Oats ...........................: 2.43 1,011,460
Proso millet ...................: 1.76 305,790
Rice ...........................: 8.49 10,025,980
Rye ............................: 1.75 182,610
Sorghum for grain ..............: 4.24 10,987,910
Sorghum for silage .............: 29.34 3,740,320
Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 2.94 55,129,190
Winter .......................: 2.87 37,490,110
Durum ........................: 2.67 1,444,790
Other spring .................: 3.14 16,194,280
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .........................: 1.81 1,138,970
Cottonseed .....................: (X) 4,820,780
Flaxseed .......................: 1.32 161,750
Mustard seed ...................: 1.04 13,160
Peanuts ........................: 4.41 2,363,260
Rapeseed .......................: 1.38 1,170
Safflower ......................: 1.37 94,640
Soybeans for beans .............: 3.21 108,013,660
Sunflower ......................: 1.65 1,004,630
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ .................: 0.89 3,501,880
Upland .......................: 0.88 3,373,860
American Pima ................: 1.67 128,020
Sugarbeets .....................: 61.33 28,472,900
Sugarcane ......................: 79.97 28,288,740
Tobacco ........................: 2.60 397,540
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ...........: 1.50 10,180
Dry edible beans ...............: 1.97 1,324,760
Dry edible peas ................: 2.14 778,140
Lentils ........................: 1.46 152,720
Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) 28,030
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) ................: 1.15 3,670
Hops ...........................: 2.09 32,200
Peppermint oil .................: 0.10 2,580
Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 47.71 20,261,650
Spring .......................: 35.64 1,025,480
Summer .......................: 36.11 714,680
Fall .........................: 49.24 18,521,490
Spearmint oil ..................: 0.13 1,260
Sweet potatoes .................: 24.53 1,341,910
Taro (Hawaii) ..................: (NA) 1,470
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Total may not add due to rounding.
3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2014-2015 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ............................tons: 1,053 1,038
Lemons ................................tons: 832 888
Oranges ...............................tons: 6,783 6,676
Tangelos (Florida) ....................tons: 40 32
Tangerines and mandarins ..............tons: 726 748
:
Noncitrus :
Apples ....................... 1,000 pounds: 11,251.2
Apricots ..............................tons: 64.1
Bananas (Hawaii) ....................pounds:
Grapes ................................tons: 7,769.6
Olives (California) ...................tons: 82.3
Papayas (Hawaii) ....................pounds:
Peaches ...............................tons: 846.6
Pears .................................tons: 808.2
Prunes, dried (California) ............tons: 95.0
Prunes and plums (excludes California) tons: 14.8
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .......pounds: 1,870,000
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 36.0
Pecans, in-shell ....................pounds: 265,370
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 565.0
Maple syrup ........................gallons: 3,167
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2014-2015 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ................................: 955,270 941,660
Lemons ....................................: 754,780 805,580
Oranges ...................................: 6,153,430 6,056,370
Tangelos (Florida) ........................: 36,290 29,030
Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 658,620 678,570
:
Noncitrus :
Apples ....................................: 5,103,460
Apricots ..................................: 58,180
Bananas (Hawaii) ..........................:
Grapes ....................................: 7,048,490
Olives (California) .......................: 74,660
Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................:
Peaches ...................................: 768,040
Pears .....................................: 733,200
Prunes, dried (California) ................: 86,180
Prunes and plums (excludes California) ....: 13,430
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 848,220
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 32,660
Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 120,370
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 512,560
Maple syrup ...............................: 15,830
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
February Weather Summary
A remarkably persistent weather regime-featuring a Western ridge and Eastern
trough-led to record-setting February temperatures on both sides of the
Nation. The West basked in spring-like warmth, while the Great Lakes and
Northeastern States suffered through the coldest weather in decades-even
colder than February 2014. At the height of the Eastern cold wave, on
February 20, producers as far south as Florida had to take protective
measures to help guard against freeze damage to tender crops such as
blueberries, strawberries, and vegetables.
In between warm and cold regions, the Plains were the battleground for
competing air masses and saw wildly fluctuating temperatures. In areas with
patchy, shallow, or non-existent snow cover, the Plains' weather extremes
were detrimental to the health of winter wheat. As a result, the portion of
the wheat crop rated in good to excellent condition declined during February
from 58 to 44 percent in Montana and 58 to 49 percent in South Dakota.
Like January, February was a rather dry month across the majority of the
Nation. However, there were notable exceptions, including an early-month snow
storm from the Midwest into the Northeast; occasional heavy snow on the High
Plains; and several Southern storms. During the second half of the month,
some of the Southern storms produced disruptive amounts of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain.
Meanwhile, California headed toward a fourth consecutive year of drought,
despite a brief period of heavy precipitation from February 6-9. During
February, conditions were especially dry in parts of the Great Basin,
Intermountain West, and Desert Southwest, while snowpack remained close to
record-low levels in the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada.
February Agricultural Summary
All areas in the United States east of the Great Plains recorded below
average temperatures for the month. Areas of the Corn Belt, the Ohio River
Valley, and New England recorded average temperatures more than 10°F below
normal in February. Temperatures were above average for the month in the West
with areas in the northern Rocky Mountains recording average temperatures
more than 10°F above normal. Precipitation levels for the month were
generally within 2 inches of normal across the Nation. Areas with
precipitation levels more than 2 inches below normal were reported in
California and along the Gulf of Mexico in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi,
and Texas.
Winter wheat conditions declined over the previous month in some northern
locations due to lack of protective snow cover. In Montana, the percent of
the crop in the good to excellent categories dropped 14 percentage points
since February 1 to 44 percent on March 1. In South Dakota, winter wheat
conditions decreased 9 percentage points over the month to 49 percent good to
excellent. In Kansas, conditions decreased 2 percentage points in the good to
excellent categories to 44 percent on March 1. Alternatively, heavy winter
storms in Colorado improved winter wheat protection leading to a
10 percentage point increase for the month, with 48 percent in the good to
excellent categories on March 1.
In Arizona, alfalfa conditions were mostly fair to excellent, depending on
location. Sheep continued to graze on various alfalfa fields in many areas.
Barley conditions were mostly fair and durum wheat conditions were mostly
good. Storms at the beginning and the end of the month helped maintain soil
moisture levels throughout the State. Rangeland conditions vary widely from
very poor to good, depending on location.
California wheat, oats, and other winter forage crops continued to grow well
in February. Despite some beneficial precipitation during the month, some
growers were irrigating to make up for the lack of rain. Field cultivation
for spring planting continued throughout the month. Alfalfa fields were being
cultivated and planted near the middle of the month and by the end of the
month field preparations were underway for the spring planting of corn and
cotton. Pruning and shredding took place in tree fruit orchards. Grape
vineyard pruning was in full swing at the beginning of the month. By the end
of the month, grapes were developing a couple of weeks earlier due to warm
conditions. Ranchers continued to graze sheep and cattle on rangelands but
more rain is needed to help long term development of foothill grasses and
forbs. Bee hives were delivered for orchard pollination.
Winter wheat conditions throughout Texas were rated fair to good during
February. Producers in the Southern High Plains reported greenbug and winter
grain mites in fields, while the Blacklands experienced fungal pressure and
rust on small grains. Field preparations began for corn, cotton, and sorghum
planting, with 4 percent of the corn crop planted by March 1, 3 percentage
points behind both last year and the 5-year average. Producers delayed corn
planting in several areas of the State due to cold, wet weather. Range and
pasture conditions were rated fair to good, with supplemental feeding
continuing across the State.
In Florida, fieldwork and soil preparation continued throughout the month in
the Panhandle, with cold weather and saturated soil reported in the area.
Sugarcane harvest continued through February in Glades, Hendry, and Palm
Beach counties but slowed later in the month due to rain. Pastures across the
State continued to be in poor condition due to freezing temperatures and
saturated soils. Ranchers were providing supplemental feed due to the lack of
forage crops. Several citrus processing plants finished with early and
midseason oranges during February and have transitioned to grapefruit and
Valencia oranges. By the end of the month, field workers across the citrus
region noticed full bloom on all citrus varieties and feathery new growth in
well cared for groves.
Crop Comments
Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2014 is forecast at
31.2 million tons, of which 29.6 million tons was utilized for sugar and
1.54 million tons for seed. Total production is up 1 percent from both last
month and the previous year. Producers intend to harvest 874,100 acres for
sugar and seed during the 2014 crop year, unchanged from the previous
forecast. Expected yield for sugar and seed is forecast at 35.7 tons per
acre, up 0.4 ton from the previous forecast and up 1.9 tons per acre from the
previous season. Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas sugarcane estimates were
carried forward from the Crop Production 2014 Summary released in January
2015.
Grapefruit: The 2014-2015 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at
1.04 million tons, unchanged from last month's forecast but down 1 percent
from last season's final utilization. In Florida, the row count survey
conducted March 2-3 indicated 58 percent of the colored grapefruit was
harvested, while 39 percent of the white grapefruit rows had been harvested.
California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from
the January 1 forecast.
Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons),
unchanged from last month's forecast but down 20 percent from last season's
final utilization. The Row Count Survey conducted March 2-3 showed 89 percent
of the rows were harvested.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is
forecast at 748,000 tons, unchanged from the February forecast but
up 3 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, harvest of
early season varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) is complete for the season,
while the harvest of the Honey tangerine continues at a normal pace. Arizona
and California tangerines and mandarins production forecasts are carried
forward from January 1 forecast.
Florida citrus: Producers across the citrus growing region reported highs
temperatures ranging from the 70s to 80s, while minimum temperatures were in
the low 40s and upper 30s. A cold snap during the third week of the month
brought temperatures below freezing in practically the complete citrus
growing region. Temperatures below 30 degrees were sustained for less than
two hours in nearly all places, causing minimal negative effects to citrus
trees and fruit. Rainfall amounts were well above average in the Central and
Northern areas of the citrus growing region with several counties receiving
more than four inches of rainfall. Most of the Indian River District and
Southern area counties received far less rainfall. As per the U.S. Drought
Monitor, last updated February 24, 2015, abnormally dry conditions were
present in Collier County, parts of Hendry County, and in the lower half of
the Indian River District.
Processing plants were up and running at full capacity the first two weeks of
the month, taking both eliminations and field run fruit. Several plants
finished early and midseason oranges during the second half of the month and
transitioned to grapefruit or began setting up to run Valencia oranges. Early
variety fruit harvested for the fresh market included primarily Honey
tangerines and colored grapefruit. A small amount of tangelos, white
grapefruit, and early and midseason oranges also went fresh.
Grove activity included spraying, fertilizing, irrigating, and mowing in
preparation for harvest. Field workers across the citrus region observed
patchy pinhead bloom on oranges early in the month, and a full bloom on all
varieties by the end of the month.
California citrus: Oranges, mandarins, tangelos, lemons, and grapefruit
continued to be packed for domestic and foreign markets. Navel orange, Cara
Cara, Moro Blood, and Minneola Tangelo exports continued to increase. Mid-
month saw orange trees being topped in advance of the bloom. Seedless
Mandarins and Murcotts were covered with netting to prevent cross
pollination.
California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Pruning and shredding continued in tree
fruit and nut orchards. Unseasonably warm temperatures caused a few early
variety stone fruit orchards to bloom. Fungicide applications were done to
protect the blooms. Grape vineyard pruning was in full swing and canes were
being shredded and tied. Vineyards with cover crops showed good growth in
between vines. Many vineyards continued to receive herbicide, fungicide, and
miticide treatments. Mechanical and chemical pre-emergence herbicide
applications continued in fruit tree orchards and vineyards throughout the
month. Orchards were irrigated due to the lack of precipitation. Kiwifruit
was packed and exported. Olive trees were dormant the first two weeks of
February, then pruning began about the third week. Blooming was observed on
peach, plum, and nectarine trees in orchards in the southern regions of
California later in the month.
Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast
was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 69 percent of the United
States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the
season based on a fruit tree inventory conducted every year, combined with
ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July
to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are
conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the
current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and
packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July.
California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel
oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses
the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1
forecast. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also
used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses
the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1
forecast.
Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new
forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season
estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the
end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local
utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is
2.8 percent. However, if the three abnormal production seasons (one freeze
season and two hurricane seasons) are excluded, the "Root Mean Square Error"
is 2.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by
more than 2.8 percent, or 2.9 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are
9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
4.9 percent, or 5.1 percent excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during
the past 20 years have averaged 204,000 tons (211,000 tons, excluding
abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 585,000 tons regardless of
exclusions. The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final
estimate 9 times and above 11 times (below 8 times and above 9 times,
excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1
forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics
Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch...................................................... (202) 720-2127
Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops Section.......................................... (202) 720-2127
Brent Chittenden - Oats, Rye, Wheat.............................................. (202) 720-8068
Angie Considine - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum............................... (202) 720-5944
Tony Dahlman - Crop Weather, Barley.............................................. (202) 720-7621
Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................... (202) 720-9526
James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay........................................... (202) 690-8533
Bianca Pruneda - Peanuts, Rice................................................... (202) 720-7688
Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds............................. (202) 720-7369
Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............... (202) 720-2127
Vincent Davis - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries, Cherries.. (202) 720-2157
Fleming Gibson - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits............ (202) 720-5412
Greg Lemmons - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ................... (202) 720-4285
Dave Losh - Hops................................................................. (360) 709-2400
Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,
Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ................... (202) 720-3250
Daphne Schauber - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ................. (202) 720-4215
Chris Singh - Apples, Apricots, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco .......................... (202) 720-4288
Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following
ways:
All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web
site: http://www.nass.usda.gov
Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit
http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Follow NASS" box under "Receive
reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports
you would like to receive.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
[email protected].
