ISSN: 1936-3737
Released January 12, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Orange Production Down 3 Percent from December Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2014-2015 season is
6.72 million tons, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down
1 percent from the 2013-2014 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 103 million boxes (4.64 million tons), is down 5 percent from
the previous forecast and 2 percent from last season’s final utilization.
Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 48.0
million
boxes (2.16 million tons), down 8 percent from the previous forecast and
down
10 percent last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange
forecast, at 55.0 million boxes (2.48 million tons), is down 2 percent from
previous forecast but up 7 percent from last season’s final utilization.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the
2014-2015 season is 1.59 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 1
percent
from the December forecast but up 1 percent from last season’s final yield
of
1.57 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at
1.45 gallons per box, down 5 percent from last season’s yield. The Valencia
portion is projected at 1.72 gallons up 5 percent from last year’s final
yield of 1.64 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the
processing
relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several
seasons.
This report was approved on January 12, 2015.
Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Michael T. Scuse
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
James M. Harris
Contents
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States:
2013-2014 and Forecasted
January 1,
2015……………………..
……………… 4Hay Stocks on Farms – States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2013
and 2014…………………. 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015.. 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015…. 8
Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2014 and 2015 (Domestic
Units)……………………
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2014 and
2015……………………..
Percent of Normal Precipitation
Map………………………
Departure from Normal Temperature
Map………………………
December Weather
Summary…………………..
………… 13
December Agricultural
Summary…………………..
……. 13
Crop
Comments………………….
…………………… 14
Statistical
Methodology……………….
…………….. 16
Information
Contacts………………….
…………….. 17
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States:
2013-2014 and
Forecasted January 1, 2015
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the
following year]
——————————
——————————
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :
Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State
:—————————–
—-
: 2013-2014 : 2014-2015 :
2013-2014 : 2014-2015
——————————
——————————
: ——- 1,000 boxes ——-
——- 1,000 tons ——
Oranges :
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ :
California ……………..: 39,000 40,000
1,560 1,600
Florida ………………..: 53,300 48,000
2,398 2,160
Texas ………………….: 1,400 1,670
60 71
:
United States …………..: 93,700 89,670
4,018 3,831
:
Valencia :
California ……………..: 11,000 10,000
440 400
Florida ………………..: 51,300 55,000
2,309 2,475
Texas ………………….: 376 345
16 15
:
United States …………..: 62,676 65,345
2,765 2,890
:
All :
California ……………..: 50,000 50,000
2,000 2,000
Florida ………………..: 104,600 103,000
4,707 4,635
Texas ………………….: 1,776 2,015
76 86
:
United States …………..: 156,376 155,015
6,783 6,721
:
Grapefruit :
White :
Florida ………………..: 4,150 4,000
176 170
:
Colored :
Florida ………………..: 11,500 11,000
489 468
:
All :
California ……………..: 4,000 4,000
160 160
Florida ………………..: 15,650 15,000
665 638
Texas ………………….: 5,700 6,000
228 240
:
United States …………..: 25,350 25,000
1,053 1,038
:
Tangerines and mandarins :
Arizona 3/ ……………….: 200 220
8 9
California 3/ …………….: 14,500 15,500
580 620
Florida ………………….: 2,900 2,500
138 119
:
United States …………….: 17,600 18,220
726 748
:
Lemons :
Arizona ………………….: 1,800 2,200
72 88
California ……………….: 19,000 20,000
760 800
:
United States …………….: 20,800 22,200
832 888
:
Tangelos :
Florida ………………….: 880 800
40 36
——————————
——————————
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85;
grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and
California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80;
tangelos-90.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel)
and midseason varieties in Florida
and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in
Florida.
3/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
Hay Stocks on Farms – States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2013
and 2014
——————————
——————-
: May 1 :
December 1
State
:—————————–
—-
: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 :
2014
——————————
——————-
: 1,000 tons
:
Alabama …….: 215 300 1,470
1,495
Arizona …….: 35 35 200
320
Arkansas ……: 170 550 2,150
2,050
California ….: 320 140 1,900
1,750
Colorado ……: 360 320 1,400
1,800
Connecticut …: 7 8 50
48
Delaware ……: 3 2 32
28
Florida …….: 25 55 460
570
Georgia …….: 250 170 1,150
1,030
Idaho ………: 570 320 2,350
2,250
:
Illinois ……: 155 310 1,150
1,300
Indiana …….: 110 200 1,040
1,070
Iowa ……….: 290 410 2,750
2,950
Kansas ……..: 460 1,340 4,500
3,700
Kentucky ……: 470 700 4,200
3,300
Louisiana …..: 150 105 500
820
Maine ………: 22 18 120
130
Maryland ……: 75 70 290
285
Massachusetts .: 12 19 69
50
Michigan ……: 140 270 1,140
2,000
:
Minnesota …..: 490 440 3,180
3,050
Mississippi …: 200 160 1,250
900
Missouri ……: 600 1,800 5,900
5,500
Montana …….: 860 875 4,700
4,600
Nebraska ……: 610 1,150 3,800
4,600
Nevada ……..: 140 45 650
751
New Hampshire .: 10 6 21
43
New Jersey ….: 15 22 110
118
New Mexico ….: 105 90 400
435
New York ……: 150 330 2,000
1,330
:
North Carolina : 240 220 1,380
1,300
North Dakota ..: 880 1,200 4,900
5,400
Ohio ……….: 140 275 1,500
1,550
Oklahoma ……: 700 1,100 3,900
5,100
Oregon ……..: 230 210 1,700
1,640
Pennsylvania ..: 300 300 2,000
1,720
Rhode Island ..: 1 1 7
7
South Carolina : 110 95 440
370
South Dakota ..: 850 1,480 5,400
6,000
Tennessee …..: 425 630 3,370
3,050
:
Texas ………: 1,650 1,350 5,900
7,500
Utah ……….: 230 300 1,250
1,190
Vermont …….: 36 45 205
182
Virginia ……: 410 470 2,450
1,950
Washington ….: 180 290 1,200
1,450
West Virginia .: 145 235 870
910
Wisconsin …..: 410 435 2,900
2,960
Wyoming …….: 200 280 1,000
1,500
:
United States .: 14,156 19,176 89,304
92,052
——————————
——————-
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
—-
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop
:—————————–
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
——————————
—-
: 1,000 acres
:
Grains and hay :
Barley …………………….: 2,975 2,443
Corn for grain 1/ …………..: 90,597 83,136
Corn for silage …………….: (NA) 6,371
Hay, all …………………..: (NA) 57,092
Alfalfa ………………….: (NA) 18,445
All other ………………..: (NA) 38,647
Oats ………………………: 2,723 1,029
Proso millet ……………….: 505 430
Rice ………………………: 2,939 2,919
Rye ……………………….: 1,434 258
Sorghum for grain 1/ ………..: 7,138 6,401
Sorghum for silage ………….: (NA) 315
Wheat, all …………………: 56,822 46,381
Winter …………………..: 42,399 40,452 32,304
Durum ……………………: 1,398 1,337
Other spring ……………..: 13,025 12,740
:
Oilseeds :
Canola …………………….: 1,714.0 1,555.7
Cottonseed …………………: (X) (X)
Flaxseed …………………..: 311 302
Mustard seed ……………….: 33.6 31.2
Peanuts ……………………: 1,354.0 1,325.0
Rapeseed …………………..: 2.2 2.1
Safflower ………………….: 181.5 170.2
Soybeans for beans ………….: 83,701 83,061
Sunflower ………………….: 1,560.8 1,507.6
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all ………………..: 11,037.0 9,707.4
Upland …………………..: 10,845.0 9,518.0
American Pima …………….: 192.0 189.4
Sugarbeets …………………: 1,161.6 1,147.2
Sugarcane ………………….: (NA) 874.1
Tobacco ……………………: (NA) 378.4
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ………..: 24.0 16.8
Dry edible beans ……………: 1,718.9 1,665.7
Dry edible peas …………….: 935.0 899.5
Lentils ……………………: 281.0 259.0
Wrinkled seed peas ………….: (NA) (NA)
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) …………….: (NA) 7.9
Hops ………………………: (NA) 38.0
Peppermint oil ……………..: (NA) 63.1
Potatoes, all ………………: 1,061.1 1,049.5
Spring …………………..: 73.8 71.1
Summer …………………..: 50.4 48.9
Fall …………………….: 936.9 929.5
Spearmint oil ………………: (NA) 24.4
Sweet potatoes ……………..: 137.3 135.2
Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ……………: (NA) 0.4
——————————
—-
See footnote(s) at end of table.
–continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year.
Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
———–
: Yield per acre :
Production
Crop
:—————————–
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014
: 2015
——————————
———–
: —— 1,000
—–
:
Grains and hay :
Barley ……………………..
Corn for grain ………………bushels: 171.0 14,215,532
Corn for silage ………………..tons: 20.1 128,048
Hay, all ………………………
Alfalfa ……………………..
All other ……………………tons: 2.03 78,352
Oats ……………………….
Proso millet ………………..bushels: 31.4 13,483
Rice 3/ ………………………..
Rye ………………………..
Sorghum for grain ……………bushels: 67.6 432,575
Sorghum for silage ……………..tons: 13.1 4,123
Wheat, all ………………….bushels: 43.7 2,025,651
Winter ……………………
Durum …………………….
Other spring ………………bushels: 46.7 595,038
:
Oilseeds :
Canola ………………………
Cottonseed …………………….tons: (X) 5,314.0
Flaxseed ……………………
Mustard seed …………………pounds: 930 29,004
Peanuts ……………………..
Rapeseed …………………….
Safflower ……………………
Soybeans for beans …………..bushels: 47.8 3,968,823
Sunflower ……………………
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 3/ ………………..bales: 795 16,084.0
Upland 3/ …………………..bales: 781 15,496.0
American Pima 3/ …………….bales: 1,490 588.0
Sugarbeets …………………….tons: 27.4 31,386
Sugarcane ……………………..
Tobacco ……………………..
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas 3/ ………….cwt: 1,339 225
Dry edible beans 3/ ……………..cwt: 1,753 29,206
Dry edible peas 3/ ………………cwt: 1,907 17,155
Lentils 3/ ……………………..cwt: 1,300 3,367
Wrinkled seed peas ………………cwt: (NA) 618
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) ………………pounds: 1,030 8,100
Hops ………………………..
Peppermint oil ……………….pounds: 90 5,692
Potatoes, all …………………..cwt: 426 446,693
Spring ……………………….
Summer ……………………….
Fall …………………………
Spearmint oil ………………..pounds: 114 2,784
Sweet potatoes ………………….cwt: 219 29,584
Taro (Hawaii) ………………..pounds: (NA) 3,240
——————————
———–
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.
3/ Yield in pounds.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
—-
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop
:—————————–
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
——————————
—-
: hectares
:
Grains and hay :
Barley …………………….: 1,203,950 988,660
Corn for grain 1/ …………..:36,663,700 33,644,310
Corn for silage …………….: (NA) 2,578,280
Hay, all 2/ ………………..: (NA) 23,104,560
Alfalfa ………………….: (NA) 7,464,510
All other ………………..: (NA) 15,640,050
Oats ………………………: 1,101,970 416,430
Proso millet ……………….: 204,370 174,020
Rice ………………………: 1,189,380 1,181,290
Rye ……………………….: 580,330 104,410
Sorghum for grain 1/ ………..: 2,888,680 2,590,420
Sorghum for silage ………….: (NA) 127,480
Wheat, all 2/ ………………:22,995,300 18,769,930
Winter …………………..:17,
Durum ……………………: 565,760 541,070
Other spring ……………..: 5,271,090 5,155,750
:
Oilseeds :
Canola …………………….: 693,640 629,580
Cottonseed …………………: (X) (X)
Flaxseed …………………..: 125,860 122,220
Mustard seed ……………….: 13,600 12,630
Peanuts ……………………: 547,950 536,210
Rapeseed …………………..: 890 850
Safflower ………………….: 73,450 68,880
Soybeans for beans ………….:33,872,960 33,613,960
Sunflower ………………….: 631,640 610,110
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ ……………..: 4,466,560 3,928,490
Upland …………………..: 4,388,860 3,851,840
American Pima …………….: 77,700 76,650
Sugarbeets …………………: 470,090 464,260
Sugarcane ………………….: (NA) 353,740
Tobacco ……………………: (NA) 153,120
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ………..: 9,710 6,800
Dry edible beans ……………: 695,620 674,090
Dry edible peas …………….: 378,390 364,020
Lentils ……………………: 113,720 104,810
Wrinkled seed peas ………….: (NA) (NA)
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) …………….: (NA) 3,200
Hops ………………………: (NA) 15,380
Peppermint oil ……………..: (NA) 25,540
Potatoes, all 2/ ……………: 429,420 424,720
Spring …………………..: 29,870 28,770
Summer …………………..: 20,400 19,790
Fall …………………….: 379,150 376,160
Spearmint oil ………………: (NA) 9,870
Sweet potatoes ……………..: 55,560 54,710
Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ……………: (NA) 150
——————————
—-
See footnote(s) at end of table.
–continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
—-
: Yield per hectare : Production
Crop
:—————————–
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
——————————
—-
: metric tons
:
Grains and hay :
Barley …………………….: 3.89 3,849,230
Corn for grain ……………..: 10.73 361,091,140
Corn for silage …………….: 45.05 116,163,190
Hay, all 2/ ………………..: 5.49 126,822,610
Alfalfa ………………….: 7.47 55,742,870
All other ………………..: 4.54 71,079,740
Oats ………………………: 2.43 1,011,460
Proso millet ……………….: 1.76 305,790
Rice ………………………: 8.49 10,025,980
Rye ……………………….: 1.75 182,610
Sorghum for grain …………..: 4.24 10,987,910
Sorghum for silage ………….: 29.34 3,740,320
Wheat, all 2/ ………………: 2.94 55,129,190
Winter …………………..: 2.87 37,490,110
Durum ……………………: 2.67 1,444,790
Other spring ……………..: 3.14 16,194,280
:
Oilseeds :
Canola …………………….: 1.81 1,138,970
Cottonseed …………………: (X) 4,820,780
Flaxseed …………………..: 1.32 161,750
Mustard seed ……………….: 1.04 13,160
Peanuts ……………………: 4.41 2,363,260
Rapeseed …………………..: 1.38 1,170
Safflower ………………….: 1.37 94,640
Soybeans for beans ………….: 3.21 108,013,660
Sunflower ………………….: 1.65 1,004,630
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ ……………..: 0.89 3,501,880
Upland …………………..: 0.88 3,373,860
American Pima …………….: 1.67 128,020
Sugarbeets …………………: 61.33 28,472,900
Sugarcane ………………….: 79.17 28,003,890
Tobacco ……………………: 2.60 397,540
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ………..: 1.50 10,180
Dry edible beans ……………: 1.97 1,324,760
Dry edible peas …………….: 2.14 778,140
Lentils ……………………: 1.46 152,720
Wrinkled seed peas ………….: (NA) 28,030
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) …………….: 1.15 3,670
Hops ………………………: 2.09 32,200
Peppermint oil ……………..: 0.10 2,580
Potatoes, all 2/ ……………: 47.71 20,261,650
Spring …………………..: 35.64 1,025,480
Summer …………………..: 36.11 714,680
Fall …………………….: 49.24 18,521,490
Spearmint oil ………………: 0.13 1,260
Sweet potatoes ……………..: 24.53 1,341,910
Taro (Hawaii) ………………: (NA) 1,470
——————————
—-
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Total may not add due to rounding.
3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2014 and 2015 (Domestic Units)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report
or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015
crop year, except citrus which is for the 2014-2015 season. Blank cells
indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
: Production
Crop :—————————–
: 2014 : 2015
——————————
: 1,000
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit …………………………
Lemons …………………………
Oranges …………………………
Tangelos (Florida) ………………….tons: 40 36
Tangerines and mandarins …………….tons: 726 748
:
Noncitrus :
Apples ……………………..1,
Apricots …………………………
Bananas (Hawaii) ………………….pounds:
Grapes …………………………
Olives (California) …………………tons:
Papayas (Hawaii) ………………….pounds:
Peaches …………………………
Pears …………………………
Prunes, dried (California) …………..tons: 95.0
Prunes and plums (excludes California) ..tons:
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) ………pounds: 2,100,000
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) …………tons: 36.0
Pecans, in-shell ………………….pounds: 275,620
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ……….tons: 545.0
Maple syrup ……………………..
——————————
1/ Production years are 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report
or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015
crop year, except citrus which is for the 2014-2015 season. Blank cells
indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
——————————
: Production
Crop :—————————–
: 2014 : 2015
——————————
: metric tons
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit …………………………
Lemons …………………………
Oranges …………………………
Tangelos (Florida) ……………………..: 36,290 32,660
Tangerines and mandarins ………………..: 658,620 678,570
:
Noncitrus :
Apples …………………………
Apricots …………………………
Bananas (Hawaii) ……………………….:
Grapes …………………………
Olives (California) …………………….:
Papayas (Hawaii) ……………………….:
Peaches …………………………
Pears …………………………
Prunes, dried (California) ………………: 86,180
Prunes and plums (excludes California) ……:
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) ……………: 952,540
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) …………….: 32,660
Pecans, in-shell ……………………….: 125,020
Walnuts, in-shell (California) …………..: 494,420
Maple syrup …………………………
——————————
1/ Production years are 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
December Weather Summary
Limited drought relief came to California in the form of several periods of
heavy precipitation, highlighted by a potent, moisture-laden storm on
December 11-12. Although the rain improved topsoil moisture benefited winter
grains and helped to revive rangeland and pastures, significant effects from
the 3-year drought persisted. For example, California’s reservoirs got a
slight boost from runoff, but collectively remained at near-record low
levels. And, since most of California’s storms were “warm” systems,
high-elevation snowpack remained below one-half of average for this time of
year.
Precipitation also spread into other areas of the West. Like California,
however, snowpack in the Pacific Northwest languished due to warm
conditions,
despite an abundance of storms. Fewer storms reached the Southwest, where
significantly below-average snowpack was also a concern.
Farther east, a very cold November was followed by a mostly mild December.
Thawing, muddy fields led to delays in final corn harvest efforts in the
Great Lakes region. Most other fieldwork across the South, East, and Midwest
was eventually curtailed, as increasingly wet conditions developed as the
month progressed. Just prior to the holidays, a sprawling storm system
produced wet snow across the northern Plains and Midwest, along with
torrential rainfall and locally severe thunderstorms in the Southeast.
Elsewhere, mid- to late-month precipitation (rain and snow) provided a
little
bit of beneficial moisture across winter wheat areas of the central and
southern Plains. Heading into the overwintering period, wheat-related
concerns included lingering drought (on the southern Plains); the effects of
November’s cold wave (on the central High Plains); and issues related to
late
planting and poor crop establishment (in the southern and eastern Corn
Belt).
From November 23 to the end of December, the portion of the winter wheat
rated in good to excellent condition fell from 69 to 57 percent in Nebraska;
61 to 49 percent in Kansas; and 56 to 24 percent in Illinois.
December Agricultural Summary
Virtually all of the United States recorded above normal temperatures for
the
month of December. Some small pockets recorded average temperatures more
than
9°F above normal in the northern Rocky Mountains and the Northern Plains.
Precipitation levels were generally within 2 inches of normal levels across
the Nation. The most notable exception occurred in northern California where
locations recorded over 16 inches of precipitation for the month. Storms
early in the month battered the region with winds in excess of 100 miles per
hour and higher elevations received several feet of snow. Despite
historically dry conditions in the area, the storms still resulted in
flooding and mudslides throughout the region.
Harvest delays caused corn producers in Wisconsin to continue fieldwork into
the month of December. On December 7, corn was 86 percent harvested in the
State, making 2014 the fourth-latest corn harvest in the past 30 years,
ahead
of 1985, 1992, and 2009. As of December 14, corn harvested was 91 percent
harvested, but fieldwork stalled as soils thawed creating muddy conditions
and the humidity drove already high grain moisture even higher. Some
producers will continue to put effort into harvesting the last of the
standing corn and soybeans, but reports indicate that some fields will be
left standing through the winter months.
In Kansas, winter wheat conditions were rated at 49 percent in the good to
excellent categories at the end of December, down from 61 percent on
November 23. The decrease in conditions is attributed to the lack of snow
cover in the State to protect wheat from colder winter temperatures. Areas
with greater snow cover reported high winter wheat ratings including Montana
at 65 percent good to excellent, Colorado at 62 percent good to excellent,
and Nebraska at 57 percent good to excellent.
Pasture and range conditions worsened in several parts of the Nation. In
Missouri, pasture conditions at the end of the month were rated 32 percent
in
the good to excellent categories, down 16 percentage points from November
23.
Oklahoma producers reported 30 percent of pasture in the good to excellent
categories, down 9 percentage points from November 23. In Montana, pasture
conditions were rated 35 percent in the good to excellent categories, down
7 percentage points from November 30.
In Florida, citrus production benefited from adequate precipitation and
warmer than average temperatures during December. The beginning of the month
saw the harvest of early variety oranges, grapefruit and tangerines.
Producers are reporting overall good quality in fresh fruit, but fruit size
is very small compared to a normal year. By the end of December, most
processing plants have opened for the season. Navel orange harvest and white
and colored grapefruit harvest is slightly lagging behind last season but
overall running at a good pace.
Crop Comments
Grapefruit: The 2014-2015 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at
1.04 million tons, down 1 percent from last season’s final utilization, but
up 1 percent from last month’s forecast. In Florida, current fruit size of
white and colored grapefruit is less than average and is expected to be
close
to the minimum at harvest. Also in Florida, the current droppage for both
white and colored grapefruit is expected to be close to the maximum at
harvest.
Lemons: The forecast for the 2014-2015 United States lemon crop is
888,000 tons, up 7 percent from last season’s final utilization. In
California, lemon harvest was well underway with reported rain during
December having a positive impact on the crop development.
Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 800,000 boxes (36,000 tons),
down 10 percent from last season’s final utilization, but unchanged from
last
month’s forecast. Projected fruit size is below average and projected
droppage is above average.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is
forecast at 748,000 tons, up 3 percent from last season’s final utilization
but down 3 percent from the December forecast. In Florida, harvest of
Fallglo
varieties is complete for the season and harvest of Sunburst tangerines is
almost complete. The harvesting of the late maturing Honey tangerine is
beginning. Projected Honey fruit size is slightly below the minimum while
the
projected droppage is slightly above the maximum. In California, the Satsuma
harvest is complete.
Florida citrus: Across the citrus growing region, reported rainfall amounts
were less than average for this time of the year. However, all citrus
producing areas were void of abnormally dry or drought conditions throughout
the month. After a cool front passed over the State during the second week,
daily highs warmed to the mid 80s, bringing monthly temperatures closer to
average.
Processing plants shut down for the Christmas holidays, but by the end of
month were up and running at full capacity, taking both eliminations and
field run fruit. Reported weekly harvesting amounts were low, due to the
small size fruit and late maturity of early oranges. Early-mid orange
varieties harvested for processing included both Hamlin and Pineapple
oranges. Early variety fruit harvested for the fresh market included Navel
oranges, Sunburst tangerines, white and colored grapefruit, and limited
amounts of tangelos.
Grove activity included spraying, irrigation on several days during the
month, and mowing in preparation for harvest. Citrus grower’s field
activities to combat greening continued and were causing some challenges as
re-entry times after spraying were reported as ranging between forty-eight
hours and ten days.
California citrus: The color in navel oranges was reported to be improving
and exports were on the rise. Mandarin oranges, grapefruits, finger limes,
and lemons continued to be packed and shipped to foreign markets. Growers
treated citrus groves for fungal diseases and Fuller Rose Beetle infestation
to maintain export quality.
California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Shelling, processing and exporting of
stored almonds to foreign and domestic markets were ongoing. Olive,
persimmon, and late variety table grape harvests continued but were winding
down by the middle of the month. The walnut and pistachio harvests were
reported as completed by the beginning of December. Harvested fruit and nut
orchards received post-harvest irrigation, pruning, shredding, and spraying
for weeds. Growers fertilized their crops in preparation for their dormant
season. Due to heavy rains in the middle of December most field and orchard
activity was halted due to the fields being saturated.
Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms December 1, 2014
totaled 92.1 million tons, up 3 percent from the previous December.
Disappearance from May 1, 2014 – December 1, 2014 totaled 66.9 million tons,
compared with 59.9 million tons for the same period a year earlier.
December 1 hay stocks were up from 2013 in many centrally located States due
to larger production totals in 2014 as a result of good weather conditions
during the growing season. However, persistent dry weather in several
western
States limited production and hay stock levels.
Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1
forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 69 percent of the
United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start
of
the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined
with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From
mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In
August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage
surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used
to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct
grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April,
and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September
for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and
Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their
analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board
(ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published
January 1 forecast.
Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A
new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-
season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the
end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local
utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1
production forecasts, the “Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical measure
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
The “Root Mean Square Error” for the January 1 orange production forecast is
3.9 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years
(one
freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the “Root Mean Square Error” is
4.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange
production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more
than 3.9 percent, or 4.0 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9
out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
6.8 percent, or 7.0 percent excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during
the past 20 years have averaged 313,000 tons (319,000 tons excluding
abnormal
seasons), ranging from 2,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of exclusions.
The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times
and above 13 times (below 7 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal
seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this
year
is likely to understate or overstate final production.
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics
Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent
to [email protected]
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops
Branch……………………
Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops
Section…………………..
Brent Chittenden – Oats, Rye,
Wheat…………………….
Angie Considine – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings,
Sorghum…………………..
Tony Dahlman – Crop Weather,
Barley……………………
Chris Hawthorn – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso
Millet……………………
James Johanson – County Estimates,
Hay………………………
Anthony Prillaman – Peanuts,
Rice……………………..
Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other
Oilseeds………………….
Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops
Section…………… (202) 720-2127
Vincent Davis – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries,
Cherries.. (202) 720-2157
Fleming Gibson – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical
Fruits………… (202) 720-5412
Greg Lemmons – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes
………………. (202) 720-4285
Dave Losh –
Hops……………………..
709-2400
Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,
Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans
………………. (202) 720-3250
Daphne Schauber – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts
…………….. (202) 720-4215
Chris Singh – Apples, Apricots, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco
…………………….. (202) 720-4288
Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following
ways:
All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS
web
site: http://www.nass.usda.gov
Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit
http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the “Follow NASS” box under “Receive
reports by Email,” click on “National” or “State” to select the reports
you would like to receive.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
[email protected].
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against
its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of
race,
color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion,
reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial
or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual’s
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic
information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded
by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs
and/or employment activities.)
If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination,
complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online
at http://www.ascr.usda.gov/
office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a
letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your
completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue,
S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at
[email protected].
